Call-Ups

Big week in the call-ups.....

Stephen Strasburg (WAS SP) - He's up and you already know, top 10 fantasy pitcher rest of way
Mike Stanton (FL OF) - 21 jacks, #1 in all of baseball, pickup for a few weeks, expect Carlos Pena/Adam Dunn esque K rates with a ton of jacks
Jose Tabata (PIT OF) - traded for Xavier Nady, good situation in PIT for him, not great for fantasy
Andrew Cashner (CHI RP) - good for larger leagues and those playing MRI strategy
Brad Lincoln (PIT SP) - #4 pick in 2006 finally with big boys, monitor

and coming soon....
Carlos Santana (CLE C) - pickup in keeper leagues for power at catcher, he stole Russell Martin's when he was traded for Casey Blake
Jake Arrieta (BAL SP) - top pitching prospect for Orioles debut is Saturday, AL East, so keep eye on streaming him
Aroldis Chapman (CIN SP) - like many imports pitching is bipolar, will be up when he have 2 good starts in a row

Fantasy Baseball and xFIP

There has been alot of talk lately about "old school" stats such as wins and saves. They are not true indicators of performance. Thye give you an idea to some extent of what level a player is but not by much. You don't win 15+ games or save 35+ games unless you are good, but you don't need to be great to do it. To take away the BS from it all I use a stat called xFIP that can be found on Fangraphs. Per Hardball times xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA. Using this metric I try to find value in fantasy. A brief look at the SP leaders and laggards can help you find value on the wire or trade market. Only 38 SP are under 4 so the more on your team the merrier.

Top 10

• Halladay 2.92
• Wainwright 3.07
• Romero 3.12
• Lincecum 3.16
• Liriano 3.21 (My pre-season pick)
• Haren 3.22
• Johnson 3.25
• Shields 3.26 (My pre-season pick)
• Oswalt 3.30
• Lester 3.35

Others under 3.8: Carpenter, Latos, Jimenez, Hughes, Hamels, Felix, Verlander

And some suprises in the over 4 crowd:

• Leake 4.07
• Sanchez 4.11
• Buchholz 4.16
• Price 4.23
• Kershaw 4.24
• Greinke 4.27
• Hudson 4.37
• Garza 4.43
• Johan 4.48
• Sheets 4.71
• Lackey 5.30

Fantasy Catchers 2009 in Review

2009 Average Draft Pick Rankings (Draft Position, Round)
1. Brian McCann (44, 4) - solid 2nd tier, not worthy of selection
2. Russ Martin (45, 4) - absolute bust 14th best C this year
3. Joe Mauer (50, 5) - pick of the year here, MVP in fantasy and real life
4. Geovany Soto (61, 6) - biggest bust, not even top 25 at years end
5. Victor Martinez (70, 6) - went on a tear when he joined the Sox
6. Ryan Doumit (117, 10) - injuries plagued him
7. Chris Iannetta (140, 12) - horrible AVG, but still has pop
8. Matt Wieters (149, 13) - slow start after call-up, great September
9. Bengie Molina (150, 13) - what we thought
10. Mike Napoli (169, 15) - same as above
11. Jorge Posada (174, 15) - helped but new stadium but not much
12. Dioner Navarro (203, 17) - Dodgers were right, can't hit

Final 2009 Yahoo Rankings
1. Joe Mauer (12)
2. Pablo Sandoval (46)
3. Victor Martinez (58)
4. Brian McCann (142)
5. Kurt Suzuki (151)
6. Jorge Posada (196)
7. Miguel Montero (249)
8. Brandon Inge (252)
9. Mike Napoli (279)
10. Bengie Molina (283)
11. AJ Pierzysnki (309)
12. Miguel Olivo (317)
Note: Matt Wieters #3 last month of season

Power surge: 10 catchers had 19 home runs or more this year and 19 catchers hit more than 10

Looking forward to 2010, Mauer is absolutely #1 and will get consideration for first round. I see Sandoval and Victor as a 4th rounders. From there, let the crapshoot begin here. Olivo, Posada, and Napoli all hit 20 bombs in less than 400 AB's. Wieters is sure to get some hype after his September. Potential bouncebacks from McCann and Martin are possible as well. Molina and Barajas are the only decent free agent options so not much will change at this position between now and 2010. I'll start 2010 rankings with catcher when the calendar says 2010.

Look at 2010 MLB Fantasy First Round

Matt Kemp - Makes a case for #1 pick at OF due to position scarcity and potential 40/40 next year
Albert Pujols - 9 straight 30 HR, 100 RBI seasons and never injured, 1B depth makes him my #2
Hanley Ramirez - BA title winner this year plus 30/30
Ryan Braun - 30 HR, 100 RBI for 3 years plus 15 steals will fall if Brewers trade Prince
Justin Upton - 26 HR /20 steals at a mere 22
Chase Utley - 2B is stacked next year, but 30 HR-100 RBI in that lineup
Alex Rodriguez - RF porch helps get him 28 HR in 122 games this year
Ian Kinsler - 30/30 up the middle with Hamilton back runs will increase too
Carl Crawford - 15 HR, 60+ steals plus solid BA
David Wright - can't hit HR at Citi but still is great a 4 categories
Prince Fielder - played every game this year and figured out how to hit for average
Mark Reynolds - shocking but power is legit needs to keep steals up to earn 1st round status

Waiver Wire All-Star Team for Fantasy Baseball

With MLB season winding down and the playoffs pretty much locked up I'd figured I'd take a look back at the best waiver wire team one could assemble. I'll be using ADP data from Fantasygameday.net which is a composite of many sites and any player drafted after 250 to define "undrafted" as most 12 team leagues goes 23 players or 246 players total. For actual values are taken from Yahoo's rating system.

C: Pablo Sandoval (Drafted 255, Actual Value 73, #3 Catcher)
Kurt Suzuki (Drafted 231, Actual Value 175, #5 Catcher)
1B: Kendry Morales (Drafted 372, Actual Value 53, #9 1B)
2B: Aaron Hill (Drafted 317, Actual Value 36, #3 2B)
2B/SS: Ben Zobrist (Undrafted, Actual Value 62, #8 2B. #4 SS)
Marcus Scutaro (Undrafted, Actual Value 91, #10 2B, #8 SS)
Asdrubal Cabrera (Drafted 360, Actual Value 112, #11 2B, #9 SS)
3B: Mark Reynolds (Drafted 222, Actual Value 17!, #1 3B)
OF: Adam Lind (Drafted 288, Actual Value 39, #11 OF)
OF: Michael Bourn (Drafted 368, Actual Value 59, #17 OF)
OF: Michael Cuddyer (Drafted 378, Actual Value 85 ,#27 OF)

Sandoval, Hill, Zobrist, and Reynolds are fantasy MVP's. Interesting that only 3 undrafted OF make the cut for top 30 OF this year.

I always draft my entire offense before pitching and here's why:
SP: Chris Carpenter (Drafted 340, Actual Value 13, #6 SP)
SP: Wandy Rodriguez (Drafted 290, Actual Value 47, #15 SP)
SP: Randy Wolf (Drafted 382, Actual Value 60, #18 SP)
SP: Joel Pineiro (Undrafted, Actual Value 80, #20 SP)
SP: JA Happ (Undrafted, Actual Value 93, #24 SP)
SP: Scott Feldman (Undrafted, Actual Value 94, #25 SP)
SP: Edwin Jackson (Undrafted, Actual Value 96 #26 SP)
SP: Tommy Hanson (382, Actual Value 107, #28 SP)
SP: Randy Wells (Undrafted, Actual Value 150, #37 SP)
SP: Jorge De La Rosa (384, Actual Value 158, #38 SP)
SP: Jarrod Washburn (Undrafted, Actual Value 161, #39 SP)
RP: Andrew Bailey (Undrafted, Actual Value #49, #2 RP)
RP: David Aardsma (Undrafted, Actual Value #83, #6 RP)
RP: Ryan Franklin (Undrafted, Actual Value #89, #9 RP)
RP: Michael Wuertz (Undrafted, Actual Value #108, #13 RP)
RP: JP Howell (Undrafted, Actual Value #116 #16 RP)

Happy fantasy baseball offseason!

Fantasy Baseball Young Arms Race

Kids are a great way to infuse your team whether it's an injury to your ace (Billingsley) or inconsistent starts. These guys are the best to say haha look what I got to your whole league.

Brian Matusz - Orioles - SP - 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA for Double-A Bowie and now starting for the O's
Chris Tillman - Orioles - SP - 8-6 with a 2.71 ERA and 99 strikeouts in Triple-A
Neftali Feliz - Rangers - SP but working as RP - K machine
Bud Norris - Astros - SP - Best pickup on this list, NL is nothing compared to the AL East
Junichi Tazawa - Red Sox - SP - Looked good in debut vs. Tigers tonight

All the guys are highly streamable vs. KC/PIT/WAS/SD/etc. but will not be guaranteed starts just yet.

Coming Soon:
Madison Bumdgardner - Yes the Giants have another one on the farm coming soon, could give the Jimenez-esque jump into the playoffs
Jarrod Parker - D'Back that I've been waiting for him to come up for awhile and with D'Backs faltering the day will be sooner rather than later
Carlos Carrasco - centerpiece of Cliff Lee deal, will have a very long leash with CLE
Jake Arrieta - the Orioles (again) have a great young staff and they are getting there

Trading Deadline Fantasy Baseball Hangover

This year the deadline seemed to a bit crazier than in the past. I think it's part the 24-7 media cycle we live in. Our "TMZ" society demands we know more more and more about everything. I'll run through some players who got traded with my thoughts and drop some knowledge on guys you should grab if you haven't already.

Winners
Matt Holliday - hitting behind Pujols, enough said
Trevor Crowe - starting in CLE now, keep an eye on him
Justin Masterson - starting in CLE now, streamable vs KC, BAL etc.
Brett Wallace - can start and is playing where he belongs in AL
Victor Martinez - lineup protection
Aaron Poreda - pitching at Petco, K and GB pitcher will love it there, grab him
Jim Johnson - Closing in BAL now
Losers
Cliff Lee - Flyball pitcher goes from CLE to PHI, will take advantage of NL lineups but him starting at home against LAD, CHI, MIL, or COL would scare me a bit
Jarrod Washburn - pitching AL Central not AL West
Jake Peavy - PETCO to AL, poor guy, at least he can win now
George Sherill - Dump him

Waiver Wire
Brian Matusz & Chris Tillman - Just promoted, O's future aces, Tillman has more K-ability
Neftali Feliz - WOW! Joba Part 2, great pickup if you are starting poor SP you a better off with him
Jonny Gomes - 10 HR in 2 months
Josh Willingham - .345 and 9 jacks in the past 2 months for the Nats
Joel Piniero, John Lannan, and Jordan Zimmerman - NL pitchers, been hot lately
Erick Aybar & Orlando Cabrera - if you need average
Mat Latos - Top SD pitching prospect sporting a 0.89 WHIP the past month