There has been alot of talk lately about "old school" stats such as wins and saves. They are not true indicators of performance. Thye give you an idea to some extent of what level a player is but not by much. You don't win 15+ games or save 35+ games unless you are good, but you don't need to be great to do it. To take away the BS from it all I use a stat called xFIP that can be found on Fangraphs. Per Hardball times xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA. Using this metric I try to find value in fantasy. A brief look at the SP leaders and laggards can help you find value on the wire or trade market. Only 38 SP are under 4 so the more on your team the merrier.
Top 10
- Halladay 2.92
- Wainwright 3.07
- Romero 3.12
- Lincecum 3.16
- Liriano 3.21 (My pre-season pick)
- Haren 3.22
- Johnson 3.25
- Shields 3.26 (My pre-season pick)
- Oswalt 3.30
- Lester 3.35
Others under 3.8: Carpenter, Latos, Jimenez, Hughes, Hamels, Felix, Verlander
And some suprises in the over 4 crowd:
- Leake 4.07
- Sanchez 4.11
- Buchholz 4.16
- Price 4.23
- Kershaw 4.24
- Greinke 4.27
- Hudson 4.37
- Garza 4.43
- Johan 4.48
- Sheets 4.71
- Lackey 5.30
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