Friday, June 4, 2010

MLB Draft, My Way

The MLB draft is on Monday. The past few years the draft has gained increased notoriety and is now televised on MLB Network rather than being just one big conference call. Being that this is my space I though it would be interesting to express my ideas on how I'd run a draft from a business standpoint. Granted, I'm scared of being a "buyer" whether it's in baseball or any type of retail. There so many intangibles and risks that go into any buying decision: timing, short-term vs. long-term, fit, dollars, length, scarcity, etc.

First I'd request 8 million or double the MLB median to draft players. I think American players, especially with college seasoning, are the best investment one can make in baseball talent. They have the least risk and are closest to having the bigs to seeing returns on your investments. I'd rather get 80% return for less risk faster than take a chance on a high school kid who takes longer to get to the big leagues, has more leverage in negociation, and probably has a chance to be better in the long run. Studies have proven that going overslot pays for itself in the long-run as well. Foreign talent is predominantly tough to gauge to lower talent levels plus you have age and makeup issues throughout. The draft is 50 rounds and I'd take up every single round. In 2007, only 9 teams tapped out earlier. So now that I have 50 rounds to take players what is the best way to draft in 2010?

Rounds 1-4 focus on college hitters
Start with the least risk, arms blow out and you can get similar ones later that are closer to MLB later
Read this table, enough said

Rounds 5-12 focus college pitchers
MLB ready pitching is king, you can never have too much of it at the deadline, you can always trade a pitcher for a bat, but the opposite is not always true

Rounds 13-25 focus on athletes up the middle
Look at the Rays, there entire team is madeup of SS and CF types who are athletes, you can always buy corners and they are getting cheaper by the day as well

Rounds 26-40 focus on locals who you can buy out of all/some school preferably from good schools, two parent homes, and good workers/students
I know some teams use some sort of non baseball evaluations and I think it matters more than one would think. It's just a safer investment. It's very tough to get this sort of information unless it's in your home state. Plus these locals are the ones most likely to bypass college for the chance to play for the local team

Rounds 41-50 Go overslot and buy the draft the best high school players in your state committed and try to steal them from college
Sell them on the bonus, the city, the dream, tour the stadium with team legends like you would the best free agents, it won't work everytime but most times I think it would, lays the groundwork for their actual free agency in 8 years if they are this good

There you have it. Go deep (50), draft value early from college with hitters first, athletes in the middle, and risky local high school kids later. If I get a chance I'll try to take a peak next week if anybody followed my advice.