Winners
Nationals - get Harper, best prospect since ARod
Scott Boras - 4 out of 7 top picks including Harper
Angels - 5 top 50 picks, strong track record, thanks Lackey + Figgins for leaving
Rays - 3 top high school bats to go with there #2 farm system
Hendricks - Get Taillon (#2) & Lee (Dodgers pick)
Red Sox - 3 top college stars including Ranaundo who was #1 before Harper entered
White Sox/Reds - top player Sale and Grandal fall into their laps
*Dodgers - only if they sign their pick and spread out the $ by getting two sport star
Cox - falls from top 10 all the way to the one of the best baseball towns in America
SFX - most first round picks today
Losers
Yankees - let multiple top 15 guys slide they have $ to get to take BA #168
CAA - only 2 picks today by my count
Cubs - take somebody named Simpson who is ranked outside top 200 in most publications
Stetson Allie - #15 guy on board goes from live feed on predraft to undrafted
Astros - spend $ on the draft please, you farm is one of the worst for a reason, plus 2 07 picks get picked
Austin Wilson - local boy from Harvard-Westlake top position player on board
Rangers - pay overslot somehow guys, draft 2 sports stars from Texas
Note: There were multiple players who the big boys will chase namely the Yankees/Cubs picks now that they can command first round $, so Boras/SFX/etc. will only add to their hauls later this week
Monday, June 7, 2010
TV This Week...
Monday
MLB Draft on MLB Network - Bryce Harper and 49 other guys become instant millionaires
Last Comic Standing on ABC - Idol for comedians
Tuesday
The Strasburg Debut on MLB Network - interested to see how many non-baseball fans tune in
Lakers-Celtics Game 3 on ABC - Back in Boston and all square
Glee - Faithfully from Journey is sure to be top 50 on Billboard next week
Wednesday
CMT Music Awards - not for me, but I know alot of you are into it
Blackhawks vs. Flyers Game 6
Thursday
Lakers-Celtics Game 4 on ABC
Friday
World Cup Begins on ESPN/ABC
I'm a Comin on Showtime - Tells the story of how comedians made it
Blackhawks vs. Flyers Game 7 if necessary
Saturday
USA vs. England on ABC
Sunday
Lakers-Celtics Game 5 on ABC
Breaking Bad on AMC - Season Finale
True Blood on HBO - Season Premiere
Kim and Khloe take Miami on E! - Season Premiere
MLB Draft on MLB Network - Bryce Harper and 49 other guys become instant millionaires
Last Comic Standing on ABC - Idol for comedians
Tuesday
The Strasburg Debut on MLB Network - interested to see how many non-baseball fans tune in
Lakers-Celtics Game 3 on ABC - Back in Boston and all square
Glee - Faithfully from Journey is sure to be top 50 on Billboard next week
Wednesday
CMT Music Awards - not for me, but I know alot of you are into it
Blackhawks vs. Flyers Game 6
Thursday
Lakers-Celtics Game 4 on ABC
Friday
World Cup Begins on ESPN/ABC
I'm a Comin on Showtime - Tells the story of how comedians made it
Blackhawks vs. Flyers Game 7 if necessary
Saturday
USA vs. England on ABC
Sunday
Lakers-Celtics Game 5 on ABC
Breaking Bad on AMC - Season Finale
True Blood on HBO - Season Premiere
Kim and Khloe take Miami on E! - Season Premiere
Friday, June 4, 2010
At The Movies....
Last Week: Prince of Persia and Sex and The City 2
Get Him To The Greek - Russell Brand, Jonah Hill and the director of Forgetting Sarah Marshall so you can count me in to on this one (75% on Rotten Tomatoes)
Killers - Mr. and Mrs. Smith the remix with Ashton Kutcher and Catherine Heigl, feel like a decent Fall date movie DVD at the house due to horrific reviews (6% on Rotten Tomatoes)
Markaduke - it's a kid film, animated, with voices, counter-gramming just in time for school to get out (11% on Rotten Tomatoes)
Splice - the scary movie that is preview on TV is this one, I'm out but looks scary (72% on Rotten Tomatoes)
Next Week: A-Team, The Karate Kid and in 2 weeks: Toy Story 3 & Jonah Hex
Get Him To The Greek - Russell Brand, Jonah Hill and the director of Forgetting Sarah Marshall so you can count me in to on this one (75% on Rotten Tomatoes)
Killers - Mr. and Mrs. Smith the remix with Ashton Kutcher and Catherine Heigl, feel like a decent Fall date movie DVD at the house due to horrific reviews (6% on Rotten Tomatoes)
Markaduke - it's a kid film, animated, with voices, counter-gramming just in time for school to get out (11% on Rotten Tomatoes)
Splice - the scary movie that is preview on TV is this one, I'm out but looks scary (72% on Rotten Tomatoes)
Next Week: A-Team, The Karate Kid and in 2 weeks: Toy Story 3 & Jonah Hex
MLB Draft, My Way
The MLB draft is on Monday. The past few years the draft has gained increased notoriety and is now televised on MLB Network rather than being just one big conference call. Being that this is my space I though it would be interesting to express my ideas on how I'd run a draft from a business standpoint. Granted, I'm scared of being a "buyer" whether it's in baseball or any type of retail. There so many intangibles and risks that go into any buying decision: timing, short-term vs. long-term, fit, dollars, length, scarcity, etc.
First I'd request 8 million or double the MLB median to draft players. I think American players, especially with college seasoning, are the best investment one can make in baseball talent. They have the least risk and are closest to having the bigs to seeing returns on your investments. I'd rather get 80% return for less risk faster than take a chance on a high school kid who takes longer to get to the big leagues, has more leverage in negociation, and probably has a chance to be better in the long run. Studies have proven that going overslot pays for itself in the long-run as well. Foreign talent is predominantly tough to gauge to lower talent levels plus you have age and makeup issues throughout. The draft is 50 rounds and I'd take up every single round. In 2007, only 9 teams tapped out earlier. So now that I have 50 rounds to take players what is the best way to draft in 2010?
Rounds 1-4 focus on college hitters
Start with the least risk, arms blow out and you can get similar ones later that are closer to MLB later
Read this table, enough said
Rounds 5-12 focus college pitchers
MLB ready pitching is king, you can never have too much of it at the deadline, you can always trade a pitcher for a bat, but the opposite is not always true
Rounds 13-25 focus on athletes up the middle
Look at the Rays, there entire team is madeup of SS and CF types who are athletes, you can always buy corners and they are getting cheaper by the day as well
Rounds 26-40 focus on locals who you can buy out of all/some school preferably from good schools, two parent homes, and good workers/students
I know some teams use some sort of non baseball evaluations and I think it matters more than one would think. It's just a safer investment. It's very tough to get this sort of information unless it's in your home state. Plus these locals are the ones most likely to bypass college for the chance to play for the local team
Rounds 41-50 Go overslot and buy the draft the best high school players in your state committed and try to steal them from college
Sell them on the bonus, the city, the dream, tour the stadium with team legends like you would the best free agents, it won't work everytime but most times I think it would, lays the groundwork for their actual free agency in 8 years if they are this good
There you have it. Go deep (50), draft value early from college with hitters first, athletes in the middle, and risky local high school kids later. If I get a chance I'll try to take a peak next week if anybody followed my advice.
First I'd request 8 million or double the MLB median to draft players. I think American players, especially with college seasoning, are the best investment one can make in baseball talent. They have the least risk and are closest to having the bigs to seeing returns on your investments. I'd rather get 80% return for less risk faster than take a chance on a high school kid who takes longer to get to the big leagues, has more leverage in negociation, and probably has a chance to be better in the long run. Studies have proven that going overslot pays for itself in the long-run as well. Foreign talent is predominantly tough to gauge to lower talent levels plus you have age and makeup issues throughout. The draft is 50 rounds and I'd take up every single round. In 2007, only 9 teams tapped out earlier. So now that I have 50 rounds to take players what is the best way to draft in 2010?
Rounds 1-4 focus on college hitters
Start with the least risk, arms blow out and you can get similar ones later that are closer to MLB later
Read this table, enough said
Rounds 5-12 focus college pitchers
MLB ready pitching is king, you can never have too much of it at the deadline, you can always trade a pitcher for a bat, but the opposite is not always true
Rounds 13-25 focus on athletes up the middle
Look at the Rays, there entire team is madeup of SS and CF types who are athletes, you can always buy corners and they are getting cheaper by the day as well
Rounds 26-40 focus on locals who you can buy out of all/some school preferably from good schools, two parent homes, and good workers/students
I know some teams use some sort of non baseball evaluations and I think it matters more than one would think. It's just a safer investment. It's very tough to get this sort of information unless it's in your home state. Plus these locals are the ones most likely to bypass college for the chance to play for the local team
Rounds 41-50 Go overslot and buy the draft the best high school players in your state committed and try to steal them from college
Sell them on the bonus, the city, the dream, tour the stadium with team legends like you would the best free agents, it won't work everytime but most times I think it would, lays the groundwork for their actual free agency in 8 years if they are this good
There you have it. Go deep (50), draft value early from college with hitters first, athletes in the middle, and risky local high school kids later. If I get a chance I'll try to take a peak next week if anybody followed my advice.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Fantasy Baseball and xFIP
There has been alot of talk lately about "old school" stats such as wins and saves. They are not true indicators of performance. Thye give you an idea to some extent of what level a player is but not by much. You don't win 15+ games or save 35+ games unless you are good, but you don't need to be great to do it. To take away the BS from it all I use a stat called xFIP that can be found on Fangraphs. Per Hardball times xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA. Using this metric I try to find value in fantasy. A brief look at the SP leaders and laggards can help you find value on the wire or trade market. Only 38 SP are under 4 so the more on your team the merrier.
Top 10
And some suprises in the over 4 crowd:
Top 10
- Halladay 2.92
- Wainwright 3.07
- Romero 3.12
- Lincecum 3.16
- Liriano 3.21 (My pre-season pick)
- Haren 3.22
- Johnson 3.25
- Shields 3.26 (My pre-season pick)
- Oswalt 3.30
- Lester 3.35
And some suprises in the over 4 crowd:
- Leake 4.07
- Sanchez 4.11
- Buchholz 4.16
- Price 4.23
- Kershaw 4.24
- Greinke 4.27
- Hudson 4.37
- Garza 4.43
- Johan 4.48
- Sheets 4.71
- Lackey 5.30
Green Links from the past 2 months...
5/28: Tesla & The Model S Timeline
5/26: Amyris IPO Update
5/26: Tony Blair Joins Khosla Ventures
5/25: Nissan Leaf has 13,000 reservations
5/25: Cisco & The Smart Grid
5/21: Toyota & Tesla Deal Ramifications
5/19: Coda closes $58M Round
5/14: Year of the LEDs
5/10: Better Place closes $350M round
5/7: DOE Pickups
5/5: Google Energy Timeline
5/3: Tesla's Model S
4/22: Codexis IPO
4/20: Amonix, Kleiner, & $129 million
4/15: IPO Picks
AND in the sports green world
5/28: Sox hire GreenMark
4/13: MLB's Green Initiatives
And a Players For The Planet plug because I can
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
10 Stock Picks For The Week
Thanks Kiplinger....
5 year historical sales growth greater than 12%
Beta of .9
5 year ROI greater 15%
Dividend greater than 4%
5 year historical sales growth greater than 12%
Beta of .9
5 year ROI greater 15%
Dividend greater than 4%
- BTE (sales growth 29%, Beta 1.4, ROI 15.9%, 6.86% Dividend) - Baytex Energy Trust
- DHIL (sales growth 52%, Beta 1.47, ROI 32.3%, 15.16% Dividend) - Diamond Hill Invest
- ECOL (sales growth 18%, Beta 1.15, ROI 21.3%, 5.09% Dividend) - US Ecology
- GRMN (sales growth 34%, Beta 1.52, ROI 32.3%, 4.47% Dividend) - Garmin
- LPHI (sales growth 50.6%, Beta 0.99, ROI 64.8%, 4.95% Dividend) - Life Partners
- MAIL (sales growth 36.3%, Beta 1.38, ROI 16.3%, 8.35% Dividend) - Incredimail
- TATT (sales growth 18.57%, Beta 1.17, ROI 15.12%, 4.08% Dividend) - TAT Technologies
- TEO (sales growth 15.81%, Beta 1.16, ROI 358%, 5.3% Dividend) - Telecom Argentina
- UNTD (sales growth 15.68%, Beta 1.64, ROI 16.14%, 5.87% Dividend) -United Online
- UVE (sales growth 78.24%, Beta 3.56, ROI 47.75%, 10.15% Dividend) - Universal Insurance
Summertime Jams.....
#nowplaying
Power - Kanye
He comes out from hibernation dropping rhymes in a song about his "escape" since the Beyonce incident
California Gurls - Katy Perry F. Snoop
Ridiculous beat, the I could rap over with catchy lyrics, it's a summer anthem
Not Afraid - Eminem
The man himself his back reminding us of why he was so great to begin with
Find Your Love - Drake
Ridiculous video and great track, album finally comes out next week, can he go platinum first week, I say yes
Getting Over You - David Guetta F. Fergie & LMFAO
Guetta at his best, this remix is a rare artists collaboration that works
Cooler Than Me - Mike Posner
Duke grad is on Warped Tour this summer and this is why
Neutron Star Collison - Muse
Starts off a piano (Queen-esque), features scenes from Twilight, great track
I Like It - Enrique F. PitBull
An interesting pairing, but I'm a big fan of PitBull and this song is a summer one sure to be around for a bit
#onradio....
Can't Be Tamed - Miley Cyrus
Miley tries to grow up, will be massive on radio, song alone isn't bad
Dream On / I Dreamed A Dream / Jessie's Girl / Bad Romance - Glee
This show is taking over, charted 5 new songs last week, I get it, but don't really wanna hear it on the radio
Touching On My - 3!OH3
Sounds like bad white rap, although chorus was made for DJ to stop the tracks in the club
#onyourradionotmine
My First Kiss - 3!OH3 F. Kesha
It's my a jingly summer one that will take off in the tween crowds
Nightmare - Avenged Sevenfold
Never been a fan, but perfect hockey "skate-in" song
WooHoo - Christina F. Nicky Minaj
Interesting sound, the mediocre dance music she's been pumping out for years without her vocals
Somebody To Love - Justin Bieber
Glad to see the kid make a song on his own, still no good
Pyramid - Charice F. Iyaz
Iyaz is the new Nate Dogg, so the hook is there, but the rest of track isn't
Free - Zac Brown Band
Not a country fan, but for the OAR of country I'm usually in, but this track is a slower one
Hold You - Gyptian
Jamaican reggae music and I honestly don't know what the lyrics even say, solid beat though
Power - Kanye
He comes out from hibernation dropping rhymes in a song about his "escape" since the Beyonce incident
California Gurls - Katy Perry F. Snoop
Ridiculous beat, the I could rap over with catchy lyrics, it's a summer anthem
Not Afraid - Eminem
The man himself his back reminding us of why he was so great to begin with
Find Your Love - Drake
Ridiculous video and great track, album finally comes out next week, can he go platinum first week, I say yes
Getting Over You - David Guetta F. Fergie & LMFAO
Guetta at his best, this remix is a rare artists collaboration that works
Cooler Than Me - Mike Posner
Duke grad is on Warped Tour this summer and this is why
Neutron Star Collison - Muse
Starts off a piano (Queen-esque), features scenes from Twilight, great track
I Like It - Enrique F. PitBull
An interesting pairing, but I'm a big fan of PitBull and this song is a summer one sure to be around for a bit
#onradio....
Can't Be Tamed - Miley Cyrus
Miley tries to grow up, will be massive on radio, song alone isn't bad
Dream On / I Dreamed A Dream / Jessie's Girl / Bad Romance - Glee
This show is taking over, charted 5 new songs last week, I get it, but don't really wanna hear it on the radio
Touching On My - 3!OH3
Sounds like bad white rap, although chorus was made for DJ to stop the tracks in the club
#onyourradionotmine
My First Kiss - 3!OH3 F. Kesha
It's my a jingly summer one that will take off in the tween crowds
Nightmare - Avenged Sevenfold
Never been a fan, but perfect hockey "skate-in" song
WooHoo - Christina F. Nicky Minaj
Interesting sound, the mediocre dance music she's been pumping out for years without her vocals
Somebody To Love - Justin Bieber
Glad to see the kid make a song on his own, still no good
Pyramid - Charice F. Iyaz
Iyaz is the new Nate Dogg, so the hook is there, but the rest of track isn't
Free - Zac Brown Band
Not a country fan, but for the OAR of country I'm usually in, but this track is a slower one
Hold You - Gyptian
Jamaican reggae music and I honestly don't know what the lyrics even say, solid beat though
Monday, May 31, 2010
TV This Week....
Monday
Cake Boss (Season Premiere) on TLC - I'm not a chef and don't cook but I've seen this show and it makes cake making pretty exciting
Bachelorette on ABC - I'm not into it but this is the 2nd or maybe 3rd week of the show for the summer, it's crazy to see how many Survivor and Bachelorette seasons we have. I can only imagine in 5 years a winner being Survivor #37 winner or Bachelorette season #26 runner-up on IMDB.
Tuesday
Girly premieres times 3 with Jersey Coutore on Oxygen, Downtwon Girls on MTV, & Losing it With Jillian on NBC
HBO's Rediscovering John Cazale - they profile the 5 movie, 5 best picture nominee himself.
Wednesday
Are We There Yet? (Series Premiere) -Ice Cube's movie becomes a TV show on TBS
Thursday
THE FINALS!
and Royal Pains returns on USA
Friday
The Spelling Bee on NBC, with Erin Andrews sweet but too bad nobody watches TV on Friday nights
Sunday
True Blood - returns to HBO which along with Dexter is the show I hear the best things about but never watched and
The MTV Movie Awards on MTV - still going after all the years, Twilight takeover
FINALS Game 2!
Cake Boss (Season Premiere) on TLC - I'm not a chef and don't cook but I've seen this show and it makes cake making pretty exciting
Bachelorette on ABC - I'm not into it but this is the 2nd or maybe 3rd week of the show for the summer, it's crazy to see how many Survivor and Bachelorette seasons we have. I can only imagine in 5 years a winner being Survivor #37 winner or Bachelorette season #26 runner-up on IMDB.
Tuesday
Girly premieres times 3 with Jersey Coutore on Oxygen, Downtwon Girls on MTV, & Losing it With Jillian on NBC
HBO's Rediscovering John Cazale - they profile the 5 movie, 5 best picture nominee himself.
Wednesday
Are We There Yet? (Series Premiere) -Ice Cube's movie becomes a TV show on TBS
Thursday
THE FINALS!
and Royal Pains returns on USA
Friday
The Spelling Bee on NBC, with Erin Andrews sweet but too bad nobody watches TV on Friday nights
Sunday
True Blood - returns to HBO which along with Dexter is the show I hear the best things about but never watched and
The MTV Movie Awards on MTV - still going after all the years, Twilight takeover
FINALS Game 2!
Memorial Day Pennant Chase Check...
Reminder on my opening day predictions:
Sox-Rockies WS with Heyward, Matusz, Tulo, and Longoria picking up hardware. No playoffs for Yankees or Dodgers with wildcards in Atlanta and Tampa
AL East
Rays in first by 3 over Yankees, 4.5 over Jays, and 5.5 over Sox
I predicted the Rays & Sox in the playoffs but didn't forsee the Rays being this good, although they've come back to earth over the last few weeks. The Jays are all power and pitching so far but will not be able to withstand the division as they've been fortunate to play outside the division more often than usual. My prediction stands but the Rays look like the division winner with Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, both top 10 MLB prospects, on the way.
AL Central
Minnesota in first by 3.5 over Detroit
I'm really suprised the White Sox are 8 out, but looking deeper at their offense it's really no suprise. This race is a 2 team race and I wouldn't be suprised to see them go down the last week, but this one point to Minnesota due to their starting pitching. The Indians and Royals are just horrible at this point, but hey the draft is next week.
AL West
Oakland in first by .5 over Texas and 2 games over Angels
The Mariners are going to be sellers even though a lot of people liked the team in preseason. I had the Rangers from the beginning and am sticking with it as Schneppers is incoming to help thier pen and Vladdy is killing the ball down there. I'm suprised that Oakland is hanging in, but think the Rangers will run away with this as the Angels just lost Morales.
NL East
Braves up .5 games over Philly, 3 over Mets, 3.5 over Marlins
I'm looking good here. Heyward is a ROY frontrunner and the Phillies lack of a bridge (like the Yankees) is really hurting them. It's crazy to think the Marlins payroll is $46 million and still are in the ballpark consistently with the Phillies and Mets. Props to Loria on being the most profitable owner. I'm sticking with it my prediction as both make the playoffs
NL Central
Reds up 1 game over St. Louis
The Reds (and Padres) are the most suprising team so far. The team is for real. They have the #1 offense in the NL and are getting quality starting pitching. If they add an arm or too in the bullpen they can stay there until the end, but I have issues picking against a Wainwright-Carpenter-Pujols-Holliday led team.
NL West
San Diego up 2 games on Dodgers, 2.5 on SF, and 4 over Rockies
I'm picked the Rockies to go deep into the playoffs and stand by it. Ubaldo Jimenez is the best pitcher in the NL right now. They are a mere 4 games out without their #2 starter, closer, and setup man. June is when you'll see the swing due to the Interleague schedule as I documented here last year when the schedule was released as the Dodgers will falter and the Rockies/Giants will come up.
So to review: Rays, Red Sox, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Rockies
Sox-Rockies WS with Heyward, Matusz, Tulo, and Longoria picking up hardware. No playoffs for Yankees or Dodgers with wildcards in Atlanta and Tampa
AL East
Rays in first by 3 over Yankees, 4.5 over Jays, and 5.5 over Sox
I predicted the Rays & Sox in the playoffs but didn't forsee the Rays being this good, although they've come back to earth over the last few weeks. The Jays are all power and pitching so far but will not be able to withstand the division as they've been fortunate to play outside the division more often than usual. My prediction stands but the Rays look like the division winner with Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, both top 10 MLB prospects, on the way.
AL Central
Minnesota in first by 3.5 over Detroit
I'm really suprised the White Sox are 8 out, but looking deeper at their offense it's really no suprise. This race is a 2 team race and I wouldn't be suprised to see them go down the last week, but this one point to Minnesota due to their starting pitching. The Indians and Royals are just horrible at this point, but hey the draft is next week.
AL West
Oakland in first by .5 over Texas and 2 games over Angels
The Mariners are going to be sellers even though a lot of people liked the team in preseason. I had the Rangers from the beginning and am sticking with it as Schneppers is incoming to help thier pen and Vladdy is killing the ball down there. I'm suprised that Oakland is hanging in, but think the Rangers will run away with this as the Angels just lost Morales.
NL East
Braves up .5 games over Philly, 3 over Mets, 3.5 over Marlins
I'm looking good here. Heyward is a ROY frontrunner and the Phillies lack of a bridge (like the Yankees) is really hurting them. It's crazy to think the Marlins payroll is $46 million and still are in the ballpark consistently with the Phillies and Mets. Props to Loria on being the most profitable owner. I'm sticking with it my prediction as both make the playoffs
NL Central
Reds up 1 game over St. Louis
The Reds (and Padres) are the most suprising team so far. The team is for real. They have the #1 offense in the NL and are getting quality starting pitching. If they add an arm or too in the bullpen they can stay there until the end, but I have issues picking against a Wainwright-Carpenter-Pujols-Holliday led team.
NL West
San Diego up 2 games on Dodgers, 2.5 on SF, and 4 over Rockies
I'm picked the Rockies to go deep into the playoffs and stand by it. Ubaldo Jimenez is the best pitcher in the NL right now. They are a mere 4 games out without their #2 starter, closer, and setup man. June is when you'll see the swing due to the Interleague schedule as I documented here last year when the schedule was released as the Dodgers will falter and the Rockies/Giants will come up.
So to review: Rays, Red Sox, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Rockies
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