68 of current BA Top 100 our picked within first 5 rounds (including supp.) so acquiring top talent in the top of the draft is paramount to competing in today's landscape. I understand that some teams won't deal with certain agents, have less revenues then they thought in the beginning, and won't sign all the players they drafted. I feel that looking at the BA top 100 draft prospects and seeing who got them is the best judge of the draft for now. Obviously in 3 years when these guys all make the big leagues we can see. This should be a better guide than most in the meantime.
TEAM NAME - Pitchers by pick / Hitters by pick
8 picks
Red Sox - 19,26,68,91 (4 Top 100 P) / 25,28,47,99 (4 Top 100 OF) - Theo!
7 picks
Indians - 4,58,80,84 (4 Top 100 P) / 66,75,89 (3 Top 100 OF) - They need them all
6 Picks
Blue Jays - 7, 22,59,62 (4 Top 100 P) / 53, 94 - Good work AA on first draft
5 Picks
Braves - 73,90 / 76,87,95 - No wonder why they always win
Cardinals - 34,43,61, (3 Top 100 P) / 6, 27 ( 2 Top 50 OF) - Zach Cox, best pick
Rays - 31 / 10,24,45,69 (4 Top 100 OF) - Already #2 system and counting
4 Picks
Royals - 23,54,81 (3 Top 100 P) / 9 - See Indians
Astros - 44 / 55, 63, 64 - Now sign them for once
Rockies - 33,36,78, (3 Top 100 P) / 37 - Taking advantage of Dodgers tapping out
Padres - 15, 46,79, (3 Top 100 P) / 39 - See above
Tigers - 57,86 / 17,77 - Agent's favorite team for draft
3 Picks
Phillies - 49,85 / 93 - Need to replenish after Lee/Halladay trades
Reds - 74 / 13, 32 (2 Top 50 OF) - Little by little gaining
Nats - 16, 48, (2 Top 50 P) / 1 - Ridiculous draft
D'Backs - 35,71,82, (3 Top 100 P) / (0 Top 100 OF) - They address need here
Dodgers - 29,50 (2 Top 50 P) / 100 - Short on picks due to non-arb and Mr. LSU QB
White Sox - 5,40,83(3 Top 100 P) / (0 Top 100 OF) - Nice pitching haul
Angels - 12, 56 / 97 - Considering number of picks, poor haul
Mariners - 38,42,70(3 Top 100 P)/ (0 Top 100 OF) - When will they ever get offense?
A's - 30 / 11, 67 - Tried to address offense
2 Picks
Marlins - 92 / 52 - Small market, has strong international program
Brewers - 18 / 65 - Small market
Cubs - 0 Top 100 P / 60,96 - Should be at top of this list considering revenyes
Pirates - 2, 8 (2 Top 10 P) / (0 Top 100 OF) - See Mariners
Giants - 0 Top 100 P / 14,41 (2 Top 50 OF) - Went for need her on offense
Twins - 21,72 / (0 Top 100 OF) - Went for arms here which they need
Rangers - 0 Top 100 P / 51, 98 - MLB owns them right now to some extent
1 Pick
Mets - 20 / (0 Top 100 OF) - Shocking to find them here
Yankees - 0 Top 100 P / 88 - See other NY team above
Orioles - (0 Top 100 P) / 3 - Sad to see watch this team, this doesn't help either
Note: Stock picks post moves to Thursday in lieu of Sports Business today.
Showing posts with label Baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baseball. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Monday, June 7, 2010
MLB Draft Day 1 from the couch...
Winners
Nationals - get Harper, best prospect since ARod
Scott Boras - 4 out of 7 top picks including Harper
Angels - 5 top 50 picks, strong track record, thanks Lackey + Figgins for leaving
Rays - 3 top high school bats to go with there #2 farm system
Hendricks - Get Taillon (#2) & Lee (Dodgers pick)
Red Sox - 3 top college stars including Ranaundo who was #1 before Harper entered
White Sox/Reds - top player Sale and Grandal fall into their laps
*Dodgers - only if they sign their pick and spread out the $ by getting two sport star
Cox - falls from top 10 all the way to the one of the best baseball towns in America
SFX - most first round picks today
Losers
Yankees - let multiple top 15 guys slide they have $ to get to take BA #168
CAA - only 2 picks today by my count
Cubs - take somebody named Simpson who is ranked outside top 200 in most publications
Stetson Allie - #15 guy on board goes from live feed on predraft to undrafted
Astros - spend $ on the draft please, you farm is one of the worst for a reason, plus 2 07 picks get picked
Austin Wilson - local boy from Harvard-Westlake top position player on board
Rangers - pay overslot somehow guys, draft 2 sports stars from Texas
Note: There were multiple players who the big boys will chase namely the Yankees/Cubs picks now that they can command first round $, so Boras/SFX/etc. will only add to their hauls later this week
Nationals - get Harper, best prospect since ARod
Scott Boras - 4 out of 7 top picks including Harper
Angels - 5 top 50 picks, strong track record, thanks Lackey + Figgins for leaving
Rays - 3 top high school bats to go with there #2 farm system
Hendricks - Get Taillon (#2) & Lee (Dodgers pick)
Red Sox - 3 top college stars including Ranaundo who was #1 before Harper entered
White Sox/Reds - top player Sale and Grandal fall into their laps
*Dodgers - only if they sign their pick and spread out the $ by getting two sport star
Cox - falls from top 10 all the way to the one of the best baseball towns in America
SFX - most first round picks today
Losers
Yankees - let multiple top 15 guys slide they have $ to get to take BA #168
CAA - only 2 picks today by my count
Cubs - take somebody named Simpson who is ranked outside top 200 in most publications
Stetson Allie - #15 guy on board goes from live feed on predraft to undrafted
Astros - spend $ on the draft please, you farm is one of the worst for a reason, plus 2 07 picks get picked
Austin Wilson - local boy from Harvard-Westlake top position player on board
Rangers - pay overslot somehow guys, draft 2 sports stars from Texas
Note: There were multiple players who the big boys will chase namely the Yankees/Cubs picks now that they can command first round $, so Boras/SFX/etc. will only add to their hauls later this week
Friday, June 4, 2010
MLB Draft, My Way
The MLB draft is on Monday. The past few years the draft has gained increased notoriety and is now televised on MLB Network rather than being just one big conference call. Being that this is my space I though it would be interesting to express my ideas on how I'd run a draft from a business standpoint. Granted, I'm scared of being a "buyer" whether it's in baseball or any type of retail. There so many intangibles and risks that go into any buying decision: timing, short-term vs. long-term, fit, dollars, length, scarcity, etc.
First I'd request 8 million or double the MLB median to draft players. I think American players, especially with college seasoning, are the best investment one can make in baseball talent. They have the least risk and are closest to having the bigs to seeing returns on your investments. I'd rather get 80% return for less risk faster than take a chance on a high school kid who takes longer to get to the big leagues, has more leverage in negociation, and probably has a chance to be better in the long run. Studies have proven that going overslot pays for itself in the long-run as well. Foreign talent is predominantly tough to gauge to lower talent levels plus you have age and makeup issues throughout. The draft is 50 rounds and I'd take up every single round. In 2007, only 9 teams tapped out earlier. So now that I have 50 rounds to take players what is the best way to draft in 2010?
Rounds 1-4 focus on college hitters
Start with the least risk, arms blow out and you can get similar ones later that are closer to MLB later
Read this table, enough said
Rounds 5-12 focus college pitchers
MLB ready pitching is king, you can never have too much of it at the deadline, you can always trade a pitcher for a bat, but the opposite is not always true
Rounds 13-25 focus on athletes up the middle
Look at the Rays, there entire team is madeup of SS and CF types who are athletes, you can always buy corners and they are getting cheaper by the day as well
Rounds 26-40 focus on locals who you can buy out of all/some school preferably from good schools, two parent homes, and good workers/students
I know some teams use some sort of non baseball evaluations and I think it matters more than one would think. It's just a safer investment. It's very tough to get this sort of information unless it's in your home state. Plus these locals are the ones most likely to bypass college for the chance to play for the local team
Rounds 41-50 Go overslot and buy the draft the best high school players in your state committed and try to steal them from college
Sell them on the bonus, the city, the dream, tour the stadium with team legends like you would the best free agents, it won't work everytime but most times I think it would, lays the groundwork for their actual free agency in 8 years if they are this good
There you have it. Go deep (50), draft value early from college with hitters first, athletes in the middle, and risky local high school kids later. If I get a chance I'll try to take a peak next week if anybody followed my advice.
First I'd request 8 million or double the MLB median to draft players. I think American players, especially with college seasoning, are the best investment one can make in baseball talent. They have the least risk and are closest to having the bigs to seeing returns on your investments. I'd rather get 80% return for less risk faster than take a chance on a high school kid who takes longer to get to the big leagues, has more leverage in negociation, and probably has a chance to be better in the long run. Studies have proven that going overslot pays for itself in the long-run as well. Foreign talent is predominantly tough to gauge to lower talent levels plus you have age and makeup issues throughout. The draft is 50 rounds and I'd take up every single round. In 2007, only 9 teams tapped out earlier. So now that I have 50 rounds to take players what is the best way to draft in 2010?
Rounds 1-4 focus on college hitters
Start with the least risk, arms blow out and you can get similar ones later that are closer to MLB later
Read this table, enough said
Rounds 5-12 focus college pitchers
MLB ready pitching is king, you can never have too much of it at the deadline, you can always trade a pitcher for a bat, but the opposite is not always true
Rounds 13-25 focus on athletes up the middle
Look at the Rays, there entire team is madeup of SS and CF types who are athletes, you can always buy corners and they are getting cheaper by the day as well
Rounds 26-40 focus on locals who you can buy out of all/some school preferably from good schools, two parent homes, and good workers/students
I know some teams use some sort of non baseball evaluations and I think it matters more than one would think. It's just a safer investment. It's very tough to get this sort of information unless it's in your home state. Plus these locals are the ones most likely to bypass college for the chance to play for the local team
Rounds 41-50 Go overslot and buy the draft the best high school players in your state committed and try to steal them from college
Sell them on the bonus, the city, the dream, tour the stadium with team legends like you would the best free agents, it won't work everytime but most times I think it would, lays the groundwork for their actual free agency in 8 years if they are this good
There you have it. Go deep (50), draft value early from college with hitters first, athletes in the middle, and risky local high school kids later. If I get a chance I'll try to take a peak next week if anybody followed my advice.
Monday, May 31, 2010
Memorial Day Pennant Chase Check...
Reminder on my opening day predictions:
Sox-Rockies WS with Heyward, Matusz, Tulo, and Longoria picking up hardware. No playoffs for Yankees or Dodgers with wildcards in Atlanta and Tampa
AL East
Rays in first by 3 over Yankees, 4.5 over Jays, and 5.5 over Sox
I predicted the Rays & Sox in the playoffs but didn't forsee the Rays being this good, although they've come back to earth over the last few weeks. The Jays are all power and pitching so far but will not be able to withstand the division as they've been fortunate to play outside the division more often than usual. My prediction stands but the Rays look like the division winner with Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, both top 10 MLB prospects, on the way.
AL Central
Minnesota in first by 3.5 over Detroit
I'm really suprised the White Sox are 8 out, but looking deeper at their offense it's really no suprise. This race is a 2 team race and I wouldn't be suprised to see them go down the last week, but this one point to Minnesota due to their starting pitching. The Indians and Royals are just horrible at this point, but hey the draft is next week.
AL West
Oakland in first by .5 over Texas and 2 games over Angels
The Mariners are going to be sellers even though a lot of people liked the team in preseason. I had the Rangers from the beginning and am sticking with it as Schneppers is incoming to help thier pen and Vladdy is killing the ball down there. I'm suprised that Oakland is hanging in, but think the Rangers will run away with this as the Angels just lost Morales.
NL East
Braves up .5 games over Philly, 3 over Mets, 3.5 over Marlins
I'm looking good here. Heyward is a ROY frontrunner and the Phillies lack of a bridge (like the Yankees) is really hurting them. It's crazy to think the Marlins payroll is $46 million and still are in the ballpark consistently with the Phillies and Mets. Props to Loria on being the most profitable owner. I'm sticking with it my prediction as both make the playoffs
NL Central
Reds up 1 game over St. Louis
The Reds (and Padres) are the most suprising team so far. The team is for real. They have the #1 offense in the NL and are getting quality starting pitching. If they add an arm or too in the bullpen they can stay there until the end, but I have issues picking against a Wainwright-Carpenter-Pujols-Holliday led team.
NL West
San Diego up 2 games on Dodgers, 2.5 on SF, and 4 over Rockies
I'm picked the Rockies to go deep into the playoffs and stand by it. Ubaldo Jimenez is the best pitcher in the NL right now. They are a mere 4 games out without their #2 starter, closer, and setup man. June is when you'll see the swing due to the Interleague schedule as I documented here last year when the schedule was released as the Dodgers will falter and the Rockies/Giants will come up.
So to review: Rays, Red Sox, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Rockies
Sox-Rockies WS with Heyward, Matusz, Tulo, and Longoria picking up hardware. No playoffs for Yankees or Dodgers with wildcards in Atlanta and Tampa
AL East
Rays in first by 3 over Yankees, 4.5 over Jays, and 5.5 over Sox
I predicted the Rays & Sox in the playoffs but didn't forsee the Rays being this good, although they've come back to earth over the last few weeks. The Jays are all power and pitching so far but will not be able to withstand the division as they've been fortunate to play outside the division more often than usual. My prediction stands but the Rays look like the division winner with Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, both top 10 MLB prospects, on the way.
AL Central
Minnesota in first by 3.5 over Detroit
I'm really suprised the White Sox are 8 out, but looking deeper at their offense it's really no suprise. This race is a 2 team race and I wouldn't be suprised to see them go down the last week, but this one point to Minnesota due to their starting pitching. The Indians and Royals are just horrible at this point, but hey the draft is next week.
AL West
Oakland in first by .5 over Texas and 2 games over Angels
The Mariners are going to be sellers even though a lot of people liked the team in preseason. I had the Rangers from the beginning and am sticking with it as Schneppers is incoming to help thier pen and Vladdy is killing the ball down there. I'm suprised that Oakland is hanging in, but think the Rangers will run away with this as the Angels just lost Morales.
NL East
Braves up .5 games over Philly, 3 over Mets, 3.5 over Marlins
I'm looking good here. Heyward is a ROY frontrunner and the Phillies lack of a bridge (like the Yankees) is really hurting them. It's crazy to think the Marlins payroll is $46 million and still are in the ballpark consistently with the Phillies and Mets. Props to Loria on being the most profitable owner. I'm sticking with it my prediction as both make the playoffs
NL Central
Reds up 1 game over St. Louis
The Reds (and Padres) are the most suprising team so far. The team is for real. They have the #1 offense in the NL and are getting quality starting pitching. If they add an arm or too in the bullpen they can stay there until the end, but I have issues picking against a Wainwright-Carpenter-Pujols-Holliday led team.
NL West
San Diego up 2 games on Dodgers, 2.5 on SF, and 4 over Rockies
I'm picked the Rockies to go deep into the playoffs and stand by it. Ubaldo Jimenez is the best pitcher in the NL right now. They are a mere 4 games out without their #2 starter, closer, and setup man. June is when you'll see the swing due to the Interleague schedule as I documented here last year when the schedule was released as the Dodgers will falter and the Rockies/Giants will come up.
So to review: Rays, Red Sox, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Rockies
Monday, January 18, 2010
Offseason Contracts So Far In Review
Since my computer has been down all off-season I'm going to run through the 20 biggest deals with my comments on them.
Matt Holliday, 7 year @ $120 million with Cardinals
Great deal for Boras as it's 2 years and maybe 3 years longer as he turned 30 this week, if Cardinals can't keep Pujols because of this deal then the deal gets worse
John Lackey, 5 year @ $82.5 million with Red Sox
Insurance if Beckett bolts next year and helps Sox contend with CC-AJ-Vazquez to counter with Lester-Beckett-Lackey
Jason Bay, 4 year @ $66 million with Mets
Still trying to figure out who they outbid, good work Mr. Urbon, will regret this deal in years 3 and 4 with no DH to put him as his defense is already iffy
Aroldis Chapman, 5 year @ $30 million with Reds
Great deal for Reds, lot of risk for small market team, the way they deferred the funds for what most people would say is a top 10 left handed pitching prospect is fantastic based on what they are getting, my only wonder is why Sox and Yankees weren't bidding as $6 million is nothing to them
Chone Figgins, 4 year @ $36 million with Mariners
Speed, defense, and OBP from Chone plus he's a great clubhouse guy
Randy Wolf, 3 year @ $30 million with Brewers
Nice move from the guys a WMG getting this done early as the market past him and Lackey has dropped out for SP since he signed, have to wonder though if anybody bid close to this though
Rich Harden, 1 year @ $7.5 million with Rangers
Ballsy move by the Rangers to tie-up so much payroll (as a percent) in a risk-reward guy, really thought he fit best in large market NL teams
Andy Pettitte, 1 year @ $11.75 million with Yankees
Still doing it in his 40's, more rings and that money why not
Adrian Beltre 1 year @ $10 million with Red Sox
Sox are playing for defense because they can't outslug the Yankees, might be one of best defensive 3B of all-time
Rafael Soriano, 1 year @ $7.25 with Braves, traded to Rays
Horrible move by Braves signing Wagner instead of waiting for him, then being forced to move him, Rays great work
Mark DeRosa, 2 years @ $12 million with Giants
Mr. all over the diamond, his health will determine if this is a good deal as he's recovering from a wrist injury
Mike Cameron, 2 years @ $15.5 million with Red Sox
More defense in Boston as Jacoby moves to LF, might have best defensive OF next to Seattle now
Marlon Byrd, 3 years @ $15 million with Cubs
Another mind boggler from the Cubs, do they just add a year or two extra to every contract for fun, look he's good, but 3 years
Mike Gonzalez, 2 years @ $12 million with Orioles
One of the worse moves this year, lose a first round pick, $6 million for a closer on a bad team, and tie-up payroll that should be spent elsewhere
Coco Crisp, 1 years @ $5.25 million with A's
Another risky move for a smaller market team, but at least it's only 1 year
Nick Johnson, 1 year @ $5.5 million with Yankees
Highest OBP of any free agent, it's he healthy another win for Cashman
Adam LaRoche, 1 year @ $5.5 million with D'Backs
Signing went under the rader, but if it's the 2nd half Adam then the D'Backs might have some semblance of an offense this year
Jose Valverde, 2 years @ $14 million with Tigers
Let's see trade Granderson to dump salary and then spend money on a closer when you have a free on (Perry) and lose a first round pick, still can't explain this one
Billy Wagner, 1 years @ $7 million with Braves
Braves moved way too early on him, he looked great with Sox and it's 1 year but too much risk in that bullpen now with Takashi too
Marcus Scutaro, 2 years @ $12.5 million with Red Sox
No more Julio Lugo, solid short-term move for Sox, paid market value here
Placido Polanco, 3 years @ $18 million with Phillies
A headscratcher as Phillies locked up one the best defensive 2B to play 3B and gave him an extra year, the Phillies have a ton of money locked up and $140 million in payroll so they can't be having injuries now
Brad Penny, 1 year @ $7.5 million with Cardinals
Another win for the agent for locking up his guy early with a solid guarantee as comparable pitchers are unsigned below
My best moves so far are the Aroldis Chapman to Reds, Rafael Soriano to the Rays, and whoever sign Pineiro and Dye on the cheap.
Remaining Free Agents: Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, Joel Pineiro, Jermaine Dye, Jarrod Washburn, Russell Branyan, Johnny Damon, Miguel Tejada, Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson, Pedro, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Vincent Padilla, Bengie Molina, Ryota Igarashi, Carlos Delgado, John Smoltz, Orlando Cabrera, Kiko Calero, Bradon Looper, Octavio Dotel, Gary Sheffield, Joe Crede, Rick Ankiel, and Jack Cassel
A look into 2011 free agents can be found here. Although the real prize is a man named Yu.
Matt Holliday, 7 year @ $120 million with Cardinals
Great deal for Boras as it's 2 years and maybe 3 years longer as he turned 30 this week, if Cardinals can't keep Pujols because of this deal then the deal gets worse
John Lackey, 5 year @ $82.5 million with Red Sox
Insurance if Beckett bolts next year and helps Sox contend with CC-AJ-Vazquez to counter with Lester-Beckett-Lackey
Jason Bay, 4 year @ $66 million with Mets
Still trying to figure out who they outbid, good work Mr. Urbon, will regret this deal in years 3 and 4 with no DH to put him as his defense is already iffy
Aroldis Chapman, 5 year @ $30 million with Reds
Great deal for Reds, lot of risk for small market team, the way they deferred the funds for what most people would say is a top 10 left handed pitching prospect is fantastic based on what they are getting, my only wonder is why Sox and Yankees weren't bidding as $6 million is nothing to them
Chone Figgins, 4 year @ $36 million with Mariners
Speed, defense, and OBP from Chone plus he's a great clubhouse guy
Randy Wolf, 3 year @ $30 million with Brewers
Nice move from the guys a WMG getting this done early as the market past him and Lackey has dropped out for SP since he signed, have to wonder though if anybody bid close to this though
Rich Harden, 1 year @ $7.5 million with Rangers
Ballsy move by the Rangers to tie-up so much payroll (as a percent) in a risk-reward guy, really thought he fit best in large market NL teams
Andy Pettitte, 1 year @ $11.75 million with Yankees
Still doing it in his 40's, more rings and that money why not
Adrian Beltre 1 year @ $10 million with Red Sox
Sox are playing for defense because they can't outslug the Yankees, might be one of best defensive 3B of all-time
Rafael Soriano, 1 year @ $7.25 with Braves, traded to Rays
Horrible move by Braves signing Wagner instead of waiting for him, then being forced to move him, Rays great work
Mark DeRosa, 2 years @ $12 million with Giants
Mr. all over the diamond, his health will determine if this is a good deal as he's recovering from a wrist injury
Mike Cameron, 2 years @ $15.5 million with Red Sox
More defense in Boston as Jacoby moves to LF, might have best defensive OF next to Seattle now
Marlon Byrd, 3 years @ $15 million with Cubs
Another mind boggler from the Cubs, do they just add a year or two extra to every contract for fun, look he's good, but 3 years
Mike Gonzalez, 2 years @ $12 million with Orioles
One of the worse moves this year, lose a first round pick, $6 million for a closer on a bad team, and tie-up payroll that should be spent elsewhere
Coco Crisp, 1 years @ $5.25 million with A's
Another risky move for a smaller market team, but at least it's only 1 year
Nick Johnson, 1 year @ $5.5 million with Yankees
Highest OBP of any free agent, it's he healthy another win for Cashman
Adam LaRoche, 1 year @ $5.5 million with D'Backs
Signing went under the rader, but if it's the 2nd half Adam then the D'Backs might have some semblance of an offense this year
Jose Valverde, 2 years @ $14 million with Tigers
Let's see trade Granderson to dump salary and then spend money on a closer when you have a free on (Perry) and lose a first round pick, still can't explain this one
Billy Wagner, 1 years @ $7 million with Braves
Braves moved way too early on him, he looked great with Sox and it's 1 year but too much risk in that bullpen now with Takashi too
Marcus Scutaro, 2 years @ $12.5 million with Red Sox
No more Julio Lugo, solid short-term move for Sox, paid market value here
Placido Polanco, 3 years @ $18 million with Phillies
A headscratcher as Phillies locked up one the best defensive 2B to play 3B and gave him an extra year, the Phillies have a ton of money locked up and $140 million in payroll so they can't be having injuries now
Brad Penny, 1 year @ $7.5 million with Cardinals
Another win for the agent for locking up his guy early with a solid guarantee as comparable pitchers are unsigned below
My best moves so far are the Aroldis Chapman to Reds, Rafael Soriano to the Rays, and whoever sign Pineiro and Dye on the cheap.
Remaining Free Agents: Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, Joel Pineiro, Jermaine Dye, Jarrod Washburn, Russell Branyan, Johnny Damon, Miguel Tejada, Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson, Pedro, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Vincent Padilla, Bengie Molina, Ryota Igarashi, Carlos Delgado, John Smoltz, Orlando Cabrera, Kiko Calero, Bradon Looper, Octavio Dotel, Gary Sheffield, Joe Crede, Rick Ankiel, and Jack Cassel
A look into 2011 free agents can be found here. Although the real prize is a man named Yu.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Awards and Division Series Predictions
AL ROY: Elvis Andrus (MLB Pick: Rick Porcello)
NL ROY: Chris Coghlan (MLB Pick: JA Happ)
AL MVP: Joe Mauer
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: Zach Greinke
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum (MLB Pick: Chris Carpenter)
Cardinals over Dodgers
Toughest matchup to pick. Cardinals can't hit lefties and have 2 great hitters but no much else. The Cards have much much better SP depth, games 3 and 4 are Piniero-Garland and Smoltz-Padilla in STL. Don't underestimate the Dodgers bullpen with lefties Sherill and Kuo. SP wins in the playoffs and the Cards have more of it. If Torre throws Wolf in game 4 on short rest giving them the potential for 4 LHSP starts, I reserve the right to switch my pick now. Otherwise, Matt Holliday's new friends will play on I think. Clayton and the Dodgers I'm rooting for you so please make me another dumb blogger.
Phillies over Rockies
Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels is too much for any team to overcome even the red hot Rockies in my mind, plus Utley-Rollins-Howard will mash against the Rockies middle relief. The C&C K Factory will make everybody dance now in Philly. Throw out the records and the the pressures. The Phillies will get by the Rockies, but the "wildcard" here is Ubaldo Jimenez who can steal 2 games for the Rockies possibly to give them a shot but I wouldn't bet on it.
Yankees over Tigers/Twins
Red Sox over Angels
I'm taking the northeast aces here again and again, just too much pitching as always. Lester-Beckett-Buchholz & CC-Petitte-Burnett will dominate the opposition as they have all year. If the Tigers get in and Verlander pitches game 2 and they can somehow win another game, they might have the slightest of chances.
On paper the matchups seem very close at first glance but all 8 teams have some holes. Pitching wins in the postseason as the temperature drops. I've also said you need a closer (1990's Braves) so I could just as easily see an all NL West LCS headlined by Street and Broxton but see Phillies-Cards advancing. I'm looking forward to Sox-Yankees and whatever comes out of the NL 5 game crapshoots.
NL ROY: Chris Coghlan (MLB Pick: JA Happ)
AL MVP: Joe Mauer
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: Zach Greinke
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum (MLB Pick: Chris Carpenter)
Cardinals over Dodgers
Toughest matchup to pick. Cardinals can't hit lefties and have 2 great hitters but no much else. The Cards have much much better SP depth, games 3 and 4 are Piniero-Garland and Smoltz-Padilla in STL. Don't underestimate the Dodgers bullpen with lefties Sherill and Kuo. SP wins in the playoffs and the Cards have more of it. If Torre throws Wolf in game 4 on short rest giving them the potential for 4 LHSP starts, I reserve the right to switch my pick now. Otherwise, Matt Holliday's new friends will play on I think. Clayton and the Dodgers I'm rooting for you so please make me another dumb blogger.
Phillies over Rockies
Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels is too much for any team to overcome even the red hot Rockies in my mind, plus Utley-Rollins-Howard will mash against the Rockies middle relief. The C&C K Factory will make everybody dance now in Philly. Throw out the records and the the pressures. The Phillies will get by the Rockies, but the "wildcard" here is Ubaldo Jimenez who can steal 2 games for the Rockies possibly to give them a shot but I wouldn't bet on it.
Yankees over Tigers/Twins
Red Sox over Angels
I'm taking the northeast aces here again and again, just too much pitching as always. Lester-Beckett-Buchholz & CC-Petitte-Burnett will dominate the opposition as they have all year. If the Tigers get in and Verlander pitches game 2 and they can somehow win another game, they might have the slightest of chances.
On paper the matchups seem very close at first glance but all 8 teams have some holes. Pitching wins in the postseason as the temperature drops. I've also said you need a closer (1990's Braves) so I could just as easily see an all NL West LCS headlined by Street and Broxton but see Phillies-Cards advancing. I'm looking forward to Sox-Yankees and whatever comes out of the NL 5 game crapshoots.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Miguel Angel Sano & Arnoldis Chapman
Two players in the words of Eddie Murphy are "Coming to America".
Miguel Angel Sano, Signed $3.15 million bonus with Minnesota Twins today
That signing bonus should speak for itself as it's the 2nd largestMLB international signing in history (Michael Ynoa, A's) Ynoa is 16, was born in the Dominican, and plays shortstop. As he grows, many players expect him to be a 3B. Scouting reports compare him to Hanley Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez so he has some big shoes to fill. He should start at single A next Spring Training. Thumbs up on small market team grabbing him.
Arnoldis Chapman, Free Agent
A 22 year old Cuban defector now resides in Andorra and will be the hottest free agent this month. Known as a left-handed Stephen Strasburg, is sure to make an impact immediately in MLB. He's eligible to sign right now, but I think the big market teams will wait until early November to make their offers even his agent would like to done as soon as possible. Due to his age and the dying market for free agent pitchers this year (Lackey, Wolf, Piniero) there will be a bidding war. He has Yankee written all over him as most small market teams can't swallow the risk of a 4yr/35-40 million dollar contract. Will he be an Ichiro or an Igawa? Only time will tell.
Miguel Angel Sano, Signed $3.15 million bonus with Minnesota Twins today
That signing bonus should speak for itself as it's the 2nd largestMLB international signing in history (Michael Ynoa, A's) Ynoa is 16, was born in the Dominican, and plays shortstop. As he grows, many players expect him to be a 3B. Scouting reports compare him to Hanley Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez so he has some big shoes to fill. He should start at single A next Spring Training. Thumbs up on small market team grabbing him.
Arnoldis Chapman, Free Agent
A 22 year old Cuban defector now resides in Andorra and will be the hottest free agent this month. Known as a left-handed Stephen Strasburg, is sure to make an impact immediately in MLB. He's eligible to sign right now, but I think the big market teams will wait until early November to make their offers even his agent would like to done as soon as possible. Due to his age and the dying market for free agent pitchers this year (Lackey, Wolf, Piniero) there will be a bidding war. He has Yankee written all over him as most small market teams can't swallow the risk of a 4yr/35-40 million dollar contract. Will he be an Ichiro or an Igawa? Only time will tell.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Baseball Stats That Make You Go Wow!
Joe Mauer - .371 BA
Aaron Hill - 32 HR's
Marcus Scutaro - 99 runs
Brandon Inge - 27 HR's
Rajai Davis - 36 SB's
Derrek Lee - 33 HR
Pablo Sandoval - .321 BA
Albert Pujols - 47 HR, 125 HR
Derek Jeter - 192 hits
Russell Branyan - 31 HR's
Billy Butler - 46 doubles
Mark Reynolds - 41 HR, 194 SO
Zach Greinke - 2.19 ERA
Jorge De La Rosa - 14 wins
Mariano Rivera - 1.69 ERA
David Aardsma - 34 saves
Adam Wainwright - 2.59 ERA
Javier Vazquez - 216 SO
Edwin Jackson - 3.22 ERA
Scott Feldman - 16 wins
Andrew Bailey - 2.03 ERA
JA Happ - 2.77 ERA
Ryan Franklin & Heath Bell - 37 saves
Jair Jurrjens - 2.81 ERA
Joel Piniero - 3.21 ERA
Aaron Hill - 32 HR's
Marcus Scutaro - 99 runs
Brandon Inge - 27 HR's
Rajai Davis - 36 SB's
Derrek Lee - 33 HR
Pablo Sandoval - .321 BA
Albert Pujols - 47 HR, 125 HR
Derek Jeter - 192 hits
Russell Branyan - 31 HR's
Billy Butler - 46 doubles
Mark Reynolds - 41 HR, 194 SO
Zach Greinke - 2.19 ERA
Jorge De La Rosa - 14 wins
Mariano Rivera - 1.69 ERA
David Aardsma - 34 saves
Adam Wainwright - 2.59 ERA
Javier Vazquez - 216 SO
Edwin Jackson - 3.22 ERA
Scott Feldman - 16 wins
Andrew Bailey - 2.03 ERA
JA Happ - 2.77 ERA
Ryan Franklin & Heath Bell - 37 saves
Jair Jurrjens - 2.81 ERA
Joel Piniero - 3.21 ERA
Monday, September 7, 2009
A September to Forget?
Many national beat writers have been writing obituaries for the 2009 MLB season and a quick look at the standings shows only the Wild Cards to be even remotely interesting standings-wise. Reminder, I picked the Giants and Red Sox a month ago so we'll see. Here are a few things I'm watching and you should be too:
The Pomeranz-Ranulado sweepstakes - Catching phenom Bryce Harper (another Boras client) will go #1 to the Nationals in 2010, but who will get the #2 pick for the chance to take the top pitcher the Royals or Pirates, as of this writing the Royals are "up" 2 games on the Pirates who just celebrated their 17th consecutive losing season in the "curse of Barry Bonds" who's free agency started their streak
Penny's Revenge? - Brad Penny recently signed with the Giants after his old team (Dodgers) and old manager (Rockies) refused to allow their team to sign him instead opting for Garland and Contreras, he faces the Dodgers twice next week but even if he wins his team still faces an uphill climb against the Rockies
Operation Shutdown - Sizemore, Soriano, Latos went down last week which begs the question will hurting players like Braun, Chipper, Hanley be next as their teams fall out of contention which is sure to put a wrench in many fantasy teams head to head playoff races
The Return of Pedro (that we remember) - A guy everybody seems to root for like Manny, he dominated SF last time out against Lincecum and pitches against the Nationals tonight, if he keeps it up the other 29 GM's have to feel dumb about not signing him for mere million dollars for the 2nd half
The Phillies and Cards bullpens - The two front runners for the NL pennant of late have had some trouble in the back of their bullpens of late as Ryan Franklin is off for a few days and Brad Lidge has 10 blown saves so just remember in October that the Dodgers have the best bullpen in baseball and the best closer in the NL
Is MLB an oligopoly? - 7 out of top 9 payrolls (Sorry Mets and Cubs fans) are going to the playoffs and with the NL wild card being the 14th and 15th highest payrolls (SF/COL) no team in the upper echelon of spending will make the playoffs which will lead to alot of talk about revenue sharing and the draft as the current CBA is due to run out in 2011 so this story will only grow next year when negociations begin
Sophomore slumps - Will players in their first truly full MLB season like Geovany Soto, Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Jair Jurrjens, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Joba run out of gas as they hit the last month after 6 months of real baseball?
Who's #3? - Every GM is thinking about this as there roster is set for the postseason now but who gets the ball in game 3 of the first round? There will be some tough decisions around baseball in every postseason town such as STL (Pineiro/Smoltz), LA (Kuroda/Kershaw), Philly (Pedro/Blanton), NYY (Burnett/Joba), DET (Jackson/Porcello), and ANA (Santana/Saunders)
The 7th and 8th inning muscle - The setup guys is one of my favorite players on every team, he never gets alot of credit and is always secretly hoping the closer gets hurt I saw Neftali Feliz pitch a few weeks ago and wow is all I can say plus keep an eye on guys like Matt Thornton, Matt Lindstrom, Phil Hughes, George Sherill, and Ryan Madson to continue their recent dominance
September callups - as rosters expand to 40 men in September it's always a good time to take a look at hot prospects like Buster Posey (C-SF), Neil Walker (3B - PIT), Carlos Carrasco (P-CLE), Michael Brantley (OF-CLE), and Tyler Flowers (C-CWS)
The Attendance Battle - Yankees (45,793 after 65 games) vs. Dodgers (45,756 after 72 games) lead their leagues in attendance with a month to go and a quick check shows that the Yankees max out at 47 even when they play the Sox so I'm picking the Dodgers as the favorite here to come out on top with their 56,000 person stadium and a season ending weekend series against the Rockies
The sale of the Rangers - Tom Hicks is selling and apparently 3-6 people are buying, he doesn't have the stadium too (it's leased) so look for this to draw out as he asks for top dollar, whoever buys the team is definitely in an enviable position in the long run with the best farm system in baseball, Josh Hamilton to sell tickets, and a smaller division to compete within
The Pomeranz-Ranulado sweepstakes - Catching phenom Bryce Harper (another Boras client) will go #1 to the Nationals in 2010, but who will get the #2 pick for the chance to take the top pitcher the Royals or Pirates, as of this writing the Royals are "up" 2 games on the Pirates who just celebrated their 17th consecutive losing season in the "curse of Barry Bonds" who's free agency started their streak
Penny's Revenge? - Brad Penny recently signed with the Giants after his old team (Dodgers) and old manager (Rockies) refused to allow their team to sign him instead opting for Garland and Contreras, he faces the Dodgers twice next week but even if he wins his team still faces an uphill climb against the Rockies
Operation Shutdown - Sizemore, Soriano, Latos went down last week which begs the question will hurting players like Braun, Chipper, Hanley be next as their teams fall out of contention which is sure to put a wrench in many fantasy teams head to head playoff races
The Return of Pedro (that we remember) - A guy everybody seems to root for like Manny, he dominated SF last time out against Lincecum and pitches against the Nationals tonight, if he keeps it up the other 29 GM's have to feel dumb about not signing him for mere million dollars for the 2nd half
The Phillies and Cards bullpens - The two front runners for the NL pennant of late have had some trouble in the back of their bullpens of late as Ryan Franklin is off for a few days and Brad Lidge has 10 blown saves so just remember in October that the Dodgers have the best bullpen in baseball and the best closer in the NL
Is MLB an oligopoly? - 7 out of top 9 payrolls (Sorry Mets and Cubs fans) are going to the playoffs and with the NL wild card being the 14th and 15th highest payrolls (SF/COL) no team in the upper echelon of spending will make the playoffs which will lead to alot of talk about revenue sharing and the draft as the current CBA is due to run out in 2011 so this story will only grow next year when negociations begin
Sophomore slumps - Will players in their first truly full MLB season like Geovany Soto, Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Jair Jurrjens, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Joba run out of gas as they hit the last month after 6 months of real baseball?
Who's #3? - Every GM is thinking about this as there roster is set for the postseason now but who gets the ball in game 3 of the first round? There will be some tough decisions around baseball in every postseason town such as STL (Pineiro/Smoltz), LA (Kuroda/Kershaw), Philly (Pedro/Blanton), NYY (Burnett/Joba), DET (Jackson/Porcello), and ANA (Santana/Saunders)
The 7th and 8th inning muscle - The setup guys is one of my favorite players on every team, he never gets alot of credit and is always secretly hoping the closer gets hurt I saw Neftali Feliz pitch a few weeks ago and wow is all I can say plus keep an eye on guys like Matt Thornton, Matt Lindstrom, Phil Hughes, George Sherill, and Ryan Madson to continue their recent dominance
September callups - as rosters expand to 40 men in September it's always a good time to take a look at hot prospects like Buster Posey (C-SF), Neil Walker (3B - PIT), Carlos Carrasco (P-CLE), Michael Brantley (OF-CLE), and Tyler Flowers (C-CWS)
The Attendance Battle - Yankees (45,793 after 65 games) vs. Dodgers (45,756 after 72 games) lead their leagues in attendance with a month to go and a quick check shows that the Yankees max out at 47 even when they play the Sox so I'm picking the Dodgers as the favorite here to come out on top with their 56,000 person stadium and a season ending weekend series against the Rockies
The sale of the Rangers - Tom Hicks is selling and apparently 3-6 people are buying, he doesn't have the stadium too (it's leased) so look for this to draw out as he asks for top dollar, whoever buys the team is definitely in an enviable position in the long run with the best farm system in baseball, Josh Hamilton to sell tickets, and a smaller division to compete within
Monday, August 31, 2009
Why The Internet Is Killing Newspapers (Baseball Post I Promise)
The time is now 12:25 Eastern and Andy Roddick is still playing tennis in New York. He's up 2 sets but he is still playing. Additionally Justin Upton just hit a HR to tie the Dodgers-D'Backs game. I wanted to write this post about 45 minutes ago but as a baseball guy I waited until midnight to weigh in on the Thome-Garland-Contreras deals and more maybe. Most east coast newspapers have deadlines long before midnight so none of Roddick's match or last minute MLB deals will make the earlier editions of any paper let alone the late editions. I don't want to get into the newspapers today but maybe later this week.
Jim Thome - Congrats your in the NL back with Manny again, the guy hasn't played 1B in 4 years but still is great to watch during BP because he can mash, nice addition by the Dodgers and they apparently aren't paying all of his salary
Joe Mauer - Best hitting catcher of all-time, sorry Yankee fans, he's the MVP and potentially the best hitting catcher of all-time if he keeps this up, Twins fan enjoy him because he has Yankee written all over him in a few years
Jon Garland - Mr. Valencia is coming home and it's free for the Dodgers, huge upgrade over Padilla, and just read he literally walked across the field to join the Dodgers, how surreal growing up just minutes from the stadium, has had 32 starts a year every year since '02, will replace Wolf in rotation in '10 with a hometown discount after they buyout the option first which I now found out will be funded by AZ
Albert Pujols - I love the new commercial about fathers telling their kids about seeing the legends, the NL MVP until he gets injured, and be sure I'll be telling my kids
Zach Greinke - give him the CY Young now please even though his team stinks: lead American in ERA, ERA+, CG, Shutouts, WHIP, HR/9 and is 2nd in SO and K/BB
Dayton Moore - almost worked with him in Atlanta before I headed to the Dodgers, his deal reminds me of the Wall Street bonuses from last year though if you catch my drift
Brad Penny - Headed to the Giants behind Lincecum-Cain-Zito-Sanchez, if a team can make the playoffs without bats it's this one
Jose Contreras - Now a Rockie to replace Aaron Cook, Coors is not the place to be "figuring out" your stuff" but hey they can have Cuban baseball night next year
Matt Kemp - Been a huge fan for years, next year the whole country might actually know him because he's going to be first round in fantasy, he's a special athlete and a heck of a nice guy too, him and Ethier make Manny (Mr. DH) the worst OF in LA
Scott Kazmir - Welcome to Cali! The Angels grabbed you to replace John Lackey next year and if you pitch like you use to it'll be a great deal because it was a salary dump
Billy Wagner - Why didn't you almost not drop your no-trade clause? Hapless Mets or playoff bound Sox
Yadel Marti - Hope everything is OK with you getting American citizenship because it would have been nice to see you pitch down the stretch here
Question of the night: The best rotation for the month and the playoffs? 5 games in the first round is going to make the playoffs fun (Newbies in bold)
Lee-Hamels-Blanton-Happ-Pedro/Moyer
Billingsley-Kershaw-Wolf-Garland-Padilla/Haeger (DL-Kuroda)
Lincecum-Cain-Zito-Sanchez-Penny
Carpenter-Wainwright-Pineiro-Smoltz-?
Jimenez-Marquis-Hammel-De La Rosa-Contreras (DL-Cook)
CC-Burnett-Joba-Pettitte-Mitre
Beckett-Lester-Wakefield-Buchholz-Tazawa
Verlander-Washburn-Jackson-Porcello-Robertson
Lackey-Santana-Saunders-Weaver-Kazmir
Note I'm finishing up here at 1 AM with Roddick closing out and the D'Backs-Dodgers in extras, thank you Internet
Jim Thome - Congrats your in the NL back with Manny again, the guy hasn't played 1B in 4 years but still is great to watch during BP because he can mash, nice addition by the Dodgers and they apparently aren't paying all of his salary
Joe Mauer - Best hitting catcher of all-time, sorry Yankee fans, he's the MVP and potentially the best hitting catcher of all-time if he keeps this up, Twins fan enjoy him because he has Yankee written all over him in a few years
Jon Garland - Mr. Valencia is coming home and it's free for the Dodgers, huge upgrade over Padilla, and just read he literally walked across the field to join the Dodgers, how surreal growing up just minutes from the stadium, has had 32 starts a year every year since '02, will replace Wolf in rotation in '10 with a hometown discount after they buyout the option first which I now found out will be funded by AZ
Albert Pujols - I love the new commercial about fathers telling their kids about seeing the legends, the NL MVP until he gets injured, and be sure I'll be telling my kids
Zach Greinke - give him the CY Young now please even though his team stinks: lead American in ERA, ERA+, CG, Shutouts, WHIP, HR/9 and is 2nd in SO and K/BB
Dayton Moore - almost worked with him in Atlanta before I headed to the Dodgers, his deal reminds me of the Wall Street bonuses from last year though if you catch my drift
Brad Penny - Headed to the Giants behind Lincecum-Cain-Zito-Sanchez, if a team can make the playoffs without bats it's this one
Jose Contreras - Now a Rockie to replace Aaron Cook, Coors is not the place to be "figuring out" your stuff" but hey they can have Cuban baseball night next year
Matt Kemp - Been a huge fan for years, next year the whole country might actually know him because he's going to be first round in fantasy, he's a special athlete and a heck of a nice guy too, him and Ethier make Manny (Mr. DH) the worst OF in LA
Scott Kazmir - Welcome to Cali! The Angels grabbed you to replace John Lackey next year and if you pitch like you use to it'll be a great deal because it was a salary dump
Billy Wagner - Why didn't you almost not drop your no-trade clause? Hapless Mets or playoff bound Sox
Yadel Marti - Hope everything is OK with you getting American citizenship because it would have been nice to see you pitch down the stretch here
Question of the night: The best rotation for the month and the playoffs? 5 games in the first round is going to make the playoffs fun (Newbies in bold)
Lee-Hamels-Blanton-Happ-Pedro/Moyer
Billingsley-Kershaw-Wolf-Garland-Padilla/Haeger (DL-Kuroda)
Lincecum-Cain-Zito-Sanchez-Penny
Carpenter-Wainwright-Pineiro-Smoltz-?
Jimenez-Marquis-Hammel-De La Rosa-Contreras (DL-Cook)
CC-Burnett-Joba-Pettitte-Mitre
Beckett-Lester-Wakefield-Buchholz-Tazawa
Verlander-Washburn-Jackson-Porcello-Robertson
Lackey-Santana-Saunders-Weaver-Kazmir
Note I'm finishing up here at 1 AM with Roddick closing out and the D'Backs-Dodgers in extras, thank you Internet
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Draft Deadline Winners and Losers
Winners
Washington Nationals - sign Strasburg to a 4 yr/15 million dollar deal, if they wait until May 5th next year to call him they'll up they would have him for 7 years and pay him about $40 million good work Scott and the Nationals
Diamondbacks - 15 top 10 round picks, all signed
Scott Boras - New records have been set for the largest bonus ($7.5 million by Stephen Strasburg), largest guarantee ($15,107,104 by Strasburg), largest bonus for a high schooler ($6.25 million for Donavan Tate) and largest bonus for a high school pitcher ($4.7 million by Jacob Turner) Scott represents each of those players
CAA - 7 of the top 49 picks, all signed mostly overslot, not bad for a "startup" sports agency, OK it's 3 years and they are holding their own with WMG and SBC
Tigers - as always go overslot like they have on Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, Rick Porcello, love the strategy
The big bad bottom three - Pirates-Padres-Nationals locked up most of their picks and spent what they needed to to compete
Losers
Draft system - 12 first rounders go overslot, change is coming in the new CBA
Rangers - failed to sign first round and supp first pick, lack of cash flow or poor draft management?
Blue Jays - failed to sign supp first, 2nd and 3rd round pick, this is not how you catch the Yankees and Sox, pretty sad considering 2 of those guys were Canadian bye bye JP try again
Rays - Lost first two picks, weird for a franchise that has been so "on" lately on the baseball and business side
Mets & Phillies - in the bottom 10 in spending but top 5 in team revenues, I know the picks were lower but all 3 teams have easy sales pitches, go overslot if you want to stay where you are or you'll slowly fall off your perch
Washington Nationals - sign Strasburg to a 4 yr/15 million dollar deal, if they wait until May 5th next year to call him they'll up they would have him for 7 years and pay him about $40 million good work Scott and the Nationals
Diamondbacks - 15 top 10 round picks, all signed
Scott Boras - New records have been set for the largest bonus ($7.5 million by Stephen Strasburg), largest guarantee ($15,107,104 by Strasburg), largest bonus for a high schooler ($6.25 million for Donavan Tate) and largest bonus for a high school pitcher ($4.7 million by Jacob Turner) Scott represents each of those players
CAA - 7 of the top 49 picks, all signed mostly overslot, not bad for a "startup" sports agency, OK it's 3 years and they are holding their own with WMG and SBC
Tigers - as always go overslot like they have on Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, Rick Porcello, love the strategy
The big bad bottom three - Pirates-Padres-Nationals locked up most of their picks and spent what they needed to to compete
Losers
Draft system - 12 first rounders go overslot, change is coming in the new CBA
Rangers - failed to sign first round and supp first pick, lack of cash flow or poor draft management?
Blue Jays - failed to sign supp first, 2nd and 3rd round pick, this is not how you catch the Yankees and Sox, pretty sad considering 2 of those guys were Canadian bye bye JP try again
Rays - Lost first two picks, weird for a franchise that has been so "on" lately on the baseball and business side
Mets & Phillies - in the bottom 10 in spending but top 5 in team revenues, I know the picks were lower but all 3 teams have easy sales pitches, go overslot if you want to stay where you are or you'll slowly fall off your perch
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
What A Week
Baseball season is a marathon. I don't care how good a player or team looks in March or April. This is a new era of baseball. The steroids are out of the game for the most part and the economy makes more decisions than any GM. The Yankees, Angels, and Nationals won basically all last week. The Yankees are now the best team in baseball for the week as the Dodgers lost 2 starters and seem to be in their first bad few weeks opf the season. Sidente, the Yankee-Sox Sunday game was the highest rated ESPN game in 2.5 years and what a game. A few quick hits for the week:
Junichi Tazawa - Welcome to the bigs, good luck you are going to need it this is no Japanese college league but the AL East
Jordan Zimmerman - out of for 18 months, poor Nationals, the clock is ticking on Strasburg, I think the Lerner's get it done at 6 years / 24 million with a $10 million dollar signing bonus prorated over the life of the deal
Alex Rios - No more Canadian taxes or healthcare, your contract pays you to be a 4 win player and I think you still are, my White Sox pick is looking better and better
Jason Schmidt - 14 years and $90 million, happy retirement
Jamie Moyer - your 45 in America, live in Philly and have a job, why are you complaining
Chad Billingsley - stop being injured your team needs you right now
Chris B. Young - back in triple A, hope he learns how to get on base, always been a fun player to watch
Pedro Martinez - I'm rooting for you but in the words of Randy Jackson "Sorry, dawg I'm just not feeling it"
Keep an eye on the deadline next Monday for players to get signed especially on Shelby Millers (STL), Donovan Tate (SD), Dustin Ackley (SEA), and of course Strasburg. The signings will all come in last minute as team's upset the commish to go overslot.
In a new post for the rest of the year, if the playoffs started today:
Detroit Tigers @ Yankees (Best Record)
Red Sox (WC) @ Anaheim Angels
Phillies @ Dodgers (Best Record)
Rockies (WC) @ Cardinals
This looks like a tough year to be a traveling secretary as the WC look to come out of the same division as the best team meaning a STL-PHI chase (loser plays LAD, winner play WC) and BOS-TEX chase will not allow the 2 best record teams to know who they play until a few days before even though they'll clinch 10 days before the postseason starts.
Junichi Tazawa - Welcome to the bigs, good luck you are going to need it this is no Japanese college league but the AL East
Jordan Zimmerman - out of for 18 months, poor Nationals, the clock is ticking on Strasburg, I think the Lerner's get it done at 6 years / 24 million with a $10 million dollar signing bonus prorated over the life of the deal
Alex Rios - No more Canadian taxes or healthcare, your contract pays you to be a 4 win player and I think you still are, my White Sox pick is looking better and better
Jason Schmidt - 14 years and $90 million, happy retirement
Jamie Moyer - your 45 in America, live in Philly and have a job, why are you complaining
Chad Billingsley - stop being injured your team needs you right now
Chris B. Young - back in triple A, hope he learns how to get on base, always been a fun player to watch
Pedro Martinez - I'm rooting for you but in the words of Randy Jackson "Sorry, dawg I'm just not feeling it"
Keep an eye on the deadline next Monday for players to get signed especially on Shelby Millers (STL), Donovan Tate (SD), Dustin Ackley (SEA), and of course Strasburg. The signings will all come in last minute as team's upset the commish to go overslot.
In a new post for the rest of the year, if the playoffs started today:
Detroit Tigers @ Yankees (Best Record)
Red Sox (WC) @ Anaheim Angels
Phillies @ Dodgers (Best Record)
Rockies (WC) @ Cardinals
This looks like a tough year to be a traveling secretary as the WC look to come out of the same division as the best team meaning a STL-PHI chase (loser plays LAD, winner play WC) and BOS-TEX chase will not allow the 2 best record teams to know who they play until a few days before even though they'll clinch 10 days before the postseason starts.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Handicapping the Pennant Race
With a mere two months left in the season, the MLB playoff race showing whos' got a shot and who doesn't. I'll run through the divisions with my picks for the rest of the year and postseason. Here's what we'd have if the playoffs started today
AL East: Yankees (My pick: Red Sox)
They are making the playoffs, just a question of whether or not the WC or division winners. I think that the Sox bullpen depth will help them overcome the Yankees in the long run in the division but these two teams will meet for the LCS. Poor Rays who don't have enough pitching this year, but more is on the way. The best 3 of the 5 best teams in baseball play in this division.
AL Central: Tigers (My pick: White Sox)
This is the toughest race to pick but if Peavy is throwing anywhere near what he's capable of the last 6 weeks then I see CC&Brewers-esque charge. The Twins, Tigers, and White Sox are even on paper. Here's to betting the gutsiest move of the deadline pays off.
AL West: Angels (My pick: Angels)
The Angels are 4.5 up and charged through July without Vlad and Torii Hunter. The Rangers aren't there yet but will catch them next year when they get full years out of Smoak, Feliz, and Holland.
Division Round
Red Sox vs. White Sox (Red Sox win)
Yankees vs. Angels (Yankees win)
Note: Bud Selig will be ecstatic if this happens because of it'll be the top TV markets in the AL
LCS
Red Sox over Yankees in 7
A
NL East: Phillies (My pick: Phillies)
They are up 5 now over the Marlins and Braves trailing close behind. They added Cliff Lee to pair with Cole Hamels in the playoffs. They are going to be very good for awhile.
NL Central: Cardinals & Cubs are basically tied (My pick: Cardinals)
The Cardinals went all in and I think it'll pay off. Matt Holliday is headed for the playoffs and a big payday.
NL West: Dodgers (My pick: Dodgers)
They have too much depth to falter in the regular season, the postseason is a different story.
Wild Card: Colorado & SF tied (My pick: Giants)
At the end of the year, the Giants will squeeze in by throwing Lincecum-Cain-Sanchez-Zito into a 4 man rotation that'll lead them to the promise land. Sorry Cubs fans, I think you are out.
Divisional Round
Dodgers vs. Cardinals (Pujols vs. Manny)
Giants vs. Phillies (Damn, that pitching is nuts Lincecum-Cain vs. Hamels-Lee in a short series)
Picking the NL is a complete crapshoot moreso then I can ever remember. I'm not picking because it's not going to matter. I could easily see any of the 4 teams losing the World Series to the Red Sox and as much it pains me to say the Yankes would too as well.
Keep an eye on the Cuban named Yadel Marti having a difference down the stretch, he's that good. Plus I'd expect Garland and Doug Davis to move as well.
AL East: Yankees (My pick: Red Sox)
They are making the playoffs, just a question of whether or not the WC or division winners. I think that the Sox bullpen depth will help them overcome the Yankees in the long run in the division but these two teams will meet for the LCS. Poor Rays who don't have enough pitching this year, but more is on the way. The best 3 of the 5 best teams in baseball play in this division.
AL Central: Tigers (My pick: White Sox)
This is the toughest race to pick but if Peavy is throwing anywhere near what he's capable of the last 6 weeks then I see CC&Brewers-esque charge. The Twins, Tigers, and White Sox are even on paper. Here's to betting the gutsiest move of the deadline pays off.
AL West: Angels (My pick: Angels)
The Angels are 4.5 up and charged through July without Vlad and Torii Hunter. The Rangers aren't there yet but will catch them next year when they get full years out of Smoak, Feliz, and Holland.
Division Round
Red Sox vs. White Sox (Red Sox win)
Yankees vs. Angels (Yankees win)
Note: Bud Selig will be ecstatic if this happens because of it'll be the top TV markets in the AL
LCS
Red Sox over Yankees in 7
A
NL East: Phillies (My pick: Phillies)
They are up 5 now over the Marlins and Braves trailing close behind. They added Cliff Lee to pair with Cole Hamels in the playoffs. They are going to be very good for awhile.
NL Central: Cardinals & Cubs are basically tied (My pick: Cardinals)
The Cardinals went all in and I think it'll pay off. Matt Holliday is headed for the playoffs and a big payday.
NL West: Dodgers (My pick: Dodgers)
They have too much depth to falter in the regular season, the postseason is a different story.
Wild Card: Colorado & SF tied (My pick: Giants)
At the end of the year, the Giants will squeeze in by throwing Lincecum-Cain-Sanchez-Zito into a 4 man rotation that'll lead them to the promise land. Sorry Cubs fans, I think you are out.
Divisional Round
Dodgers vs. Cardinals (Pujols vs. Manny)
Giants vs. Phillies (Damn, that pitching is nuts Lincecum-Cain vs. Hamels-Lee in a short series)
Picking the NL is a complete crapshoot moreso then I can ever remember. I'm not picking because it's not going to matter. I could easily see any of the 4 teams losing the World Series to the Red Sox and as much it pains me to say the Yankes would too as well.
Keep an eye on the Cuban named Yadel Marti having a difference down the stretch, he's that good. Plus I'd expect Garland and Doug Davis to move as well.
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