2009 Fantasy Busts and Booms

Busts
Michael Turner - #2 pick in many drafts ended up having 5th round value
Matt Forte - see Turner above
Brian Westbrook - the year the wheels broke (might have to retire) and unlike usual McCoy didnt' do a good job replacing him
Brandon Jacobs - early 2nd rounder eneded up having 7th round value on the IR
Clinton Portis - one of worst 2nd round picks as stunk it up and spent last 6 weeks on IR
Steve Slaton - see Jacobs above
Ronnie Brown - ended year on IR, would have been top 5 back if healthy though
Steve Smith - got outplayed by his namesake in New York, can't imagine how good he'd be witha good QB
TO - disappeared in Buffalo this year, will be interesting to see who signs the 35 year old
Reggie Bush - the SC/Kim Kardashian/playoff star power shines, but he stinks at fantasy
Marshawn Lynch - never made up for missing first 4 weeks as he shared with Fred Jackson all year
Antonio Bryant - 4th round pick in 09, won't get drafted in '10
TJ Houshmanzadeh - fantasy career died in Seattle and so did your 5th round pick
LJ - done and done
Other complete busts: Lendale White, Eddie Royal, Willie Parker, Anthony Gonzalez,

Booms
Aaron Rodgers - drafted after Brees, Brady, Manning but outplayed them in fantasy
Brett Favre - from 12th or 13th round pick into top 10 player at 40, amazing
Ray Rice - Top5 back for a 4th-6th rounder, I had him and he'll be the 4th or 5th pick in '10
Ben Rothlisberger - same as Favre except went a bit earlier because of his SB run in '08
Matt Schaub - my pick at QB this year proved me right as a top 5 QB in a year where every team had a ridiculous QB
Jamaal Charles - Undrafted to domination the alst 5-6 weeks, might have earned himself a 2nd round pick in '10
Miles Austin - Along with Charles, best waiver wire find of year, will go 5th or 6th round next year
Steve Smith - Outplayed the Carolina WR, but still a risky play in run first NYG offense next year
Percy and Sidney Rice - Brett's WR's went from undrafted to studs, if Brett is back they are too

Week 4 Recap: Fantasy Football

WOW! Performances of The Week

• David Garrard - 323 yards, 3 TD
• Rashard Mendenhall - 165 yards, 2 TD
• Steve Smith (NYG) - 134 yards, 2 TD
• Peyton Manning - 353 yards, 2 TD
• Ronnie Borwn - 115 yards, 2 TD
• Mike Sims-Walker(UCF) - 91 yards, 2 TD

WTF! Performances of The Week

• Tony Romo - 0 TD
• Darren McFadden - -3 yards and gets injured
• LT - 15 yards
• Braylon Edwards - 0 catches
• Drew Brees - 0 TD

Trends To Keep An Eye On

• Jerome Harrison and Rashard Mendenhall for real?
• Is Joe Flacco a must-start every week?
• How long will it take Michael Crabtree to catchup?
• The big group #2 RB's after the top 10 all being pretty equal
  

Trade Targets

• QB: Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler
• WR: Roddy White, Anquan Boldin, Dewayne Bowe, Wes Welker
• RB: Brian Westbrook, Jonathan Stewart
• Little TD Club: Bush, Forte, LT, Steve Smith (CAR), Housh - Players who don't score TD but have solid stats are always easy trade targets because there scoring is supressed
• Off Bye Week Club: Kurt Warner, Larry Fitgerald, Michael Turner, Desean Jackson, D'Angelo Williams, Matt Ryan - Players who come off the bye haven't played for owners in 10-12 days so people forget how good they are
• **Start using average points per game as byes/injuries throw off players who've played every week vs bye players if using cumulative point when targetting players**

Waiver Wire Picks

• Brian Robiskie - CLE WR
• Michael Bush - OAK RB
• Beanie Wells - AZ RB
• Jerome Harrison - CLE RB
• Rashard Mendenhall - PIT RB
• Derek Anderson - CLE QB

Week 3 Recap: Fantasy Football

WOW! Performances of The week

• Peyton Manning - 379 yards, 4 TD
• Desean Jackson - 149 yards, 1 TD
• Maurice Jones-Drew - 3 TD, 147 yards
• Matt Schaub - 3 TD, 300 yards
• Pierre Thomas - 126 yards, 2 TD
• Santana Moss - 178 yards, 10 catches, TD

WTF! Performances of the week

• Drew Brees - 172 yards, 0 TD
• Clinton Portis - 45 yards
• Matt Ryan - 199 yards, 0 TD
• TO - 0 catches
• Thomas Jones - 20 yards
• Tony Gonzalez - 1 catch

Trends To Keep An Eye On

• TB/DAL/NO all have 3 headed RB siituation, sell sell sell
• When will Leon Washinginton start for NYJ?
• How injured are Jamal Lewis, Kevin Smith, and Marion Barber?
• Does Willie Parker have turf toe or is he just old?

Trade Targets

• QB: Donovan McNabb (Back after bye)
• RB: Matt Forte, Steve Slaton
• (LT, Westbrook if you can handle the injury risk)
• WR: Steve Smith, Roddy White, Anquan Boldin, Housh

Waiver Wire Picks

• Glen Coffee - Gore is out 3 weeks
• Tashard Choice - only healthy back in DAL this week
• Donnie Avery - Lauren Robinson out for year, STL #1
• Devone Bess - Dolphins will lose and throw alot
• Jerome Harrison - Jamal Lewis might be done
  
• Brent Celek - Eagles TE if you can handle his bye this week

Week 2 Recap: Fantasy Football

WOW! Performances of The Week

• Matt Schaub - 357 Yards, 4 TD
• Chris Johnson - 3 TD, 9 catches, 284 total yards
• Carson Palmer - 4 TD
• Mario Manningham - 150 yards, TD
• Frank Gore - 207 yards, 2 TD
• Colston & A. Johnson - 2 TD
• Philip Rivers - 436 yards, 2 TD
• Willis McGahee - 2 TD (again)

WTF! Performances of The Week

• Greg Jennings - 0 catches!
• Tom Brady - 216 yards, 0 TD
• Matt Forte - 29 yards, 0 TD
• Randy Moss - 4 catches, 24 yards
• Willie Parker - 47 yards, 0 TD

Trends To Keep An Eye On

• RBBC Growing List: Ravens join Jets, Cardinals, Cowboys, Bucs
• Brian Westbrook's injured again?
• Mario Manningham is the new Plaxico?
• Fred Jackson keeping his job when Marshawn Lynch returns?
• Tom Brady is good but not wow good anymore?
• Pierre Thomas taking back job from injured Mike Bell

Trade Targets

• Steve Slaton - 2 bad weeks and ridiculous easy schedule coming up
• Matt Forte - Ranked 148th in Yahoo
• Brandon Jacobs - sharing carries but will have goal-line no matter what
• Boldin/Braylon - frustrating to many owners due nagging injuries
• Greg Jennings - I have him and wow would I trade him right now

Waiver Wire Picks

• Ted Ginn, WR MIA - 11 catches on MNF plus returns kicks
• Johnny Knox, WR CHI - Jay Cutler's new BFF (sorry Earl)
• Mike Sims-Walker, WR JAX - UCF product but not crazy like Brandon
• Justin Forsett, RB SEA - Julius Jones and Edge will not stay healthy
• Mario Manningham,WR NYG - playing the Bucs next week too
• Jets D - Rex Ryan is genius
• Kevin Walter - again please see Texans schedule over the next month (Jags, Raiders, Cards, Bengals, 49ers)

Week 1 Recap: Fantasy Football

A ton will be written this week about how certain players were genius picks (The Jones' RB) or how you never should have picked any Texan. Everybody chill out, it's one week and one game. You really need a month to see how you team and acquire your assets to help you through the bye weeks.

WOW! Performances of The Week

• Drew Brees - 6 TD!, it's the Lions in all
• Tony Romo - 3 TD, and he's on my team
• Thomas/Julius Jones - 100 yards and a TD each (Thomas even had two)
• Reggie Wayne - 10 catches and 162 yarda and #2 goes down
• Eagles DEF - 5 sacks, 5 picks, TD, and 2 fumbles

WTF! Perfromances of The Week

• Michael Turner - 65 yards
• Andre Johnson - 4 rec, 35 yds
• Anquan Boldin - 2 rec, 19 yds
• Steve Slaton - 17 yards and a fumble
• Brandon Jacobs - 46 yards (Ahmad outplayed you)

Trends to Keep An Eye On

• Ahmad Bradshaw/Donald Brown stealing carries from Brandon Jacobs and Joseph Addai
• How do RB committees for Cowboys, Jets, Cardinals and Bucs play out as well?
• Brian Westbrook and Lesean McCoy while McNabb is out
• Is Jake Delhomme done done?
• Should Joe Flacco be starting in fantasy after 300 yards today?
• Will Austin Collie step up in Indy with Anthony Gonzalez out?
• Hixon-Manningham-Barden as #1 NY Giants receiver

Trade Targets

• Andre Johnson/Steve Slaton/Matt Schaub - after the Titans shut them down in week 2, schedule goes Jags-Raiders-Cards-Bengals-49ers so start the conversations now
• Brandon Marshall - bad first week, especially if you drafted early the owner is more likely to move him
• Anthony Gonzalez - out a month returns to Rams, 49ers, Texans fot Colts in weeks 7-8-9
• Steven Jackson - team stinks, but he doesn't
• Ahmad Bradshaw - give him some time and he'll be starting in NYG
• Anquan Boldin - injured and had a bad week

Waiver Wire Picks

• Mike Bell - Saints RB this week and more (ownership under 15% in CBS & ESPN before today)
• Austin Collie - Colts new #2 with Anthony Gonzalez down
• Earl Bennett - Jay Cutler's college roomie and now Bears tandem
• Matt Cassel (OAK), Jason Campbell (STL), Brady Quinn (DEN) - a QB if you lost McNabb to fill-in for you next week and possibly longer as McNabb is out until week 5 because there bye is in week 4 and I don't think Reid will rush him back for NO or KC

Note: This post will be Tuesday to include MNF and better injury updates moving forward

(Fantasy) Football Is Back

With Thursday's kickoff, everybody's favorite office game is back. I swear fantasy football is the worst thing to happen to office productivity in awhile. It's why the NFL kicks MLB's butt. The girls in the office who don't like particularly like sports can now know who Greg Olsen is like it's the name of Jennifer Aniston's new boyfriend. It's amazing how gambling and fantasy football combined with ridiculous PR at a league level have turned the NFL into's America's sport. I'll run through a few notes and my teams this year. I considered doing a start/sit but leagues now have so many different rules kinks that those are basically worthless. Moving forward, this post will be waiver wire Mondays until 2010 when it's back to baseball.

Brandon Marshall (UCF) - unsuspended yet still crazy and will be a Jet soon if you believe Kerry Rhodes Twitter page who says a "big announcement" is coming from the Jets which would be huge for Eddie Royal and Mark Sanchez

Carnell "Cadillac" Williams - starting RB in TB based on their new depth charts, hope you read my draft update and stayed away from this situation completely, poor Derick Ward

Matt Cassel - full practice for the injured QB but I think he'll play against Baltimore because there seems to be an urge from the team to get him out there (don't start him anyways its the Ravens defense) as he's their new face of the franchise

Matt Stafford - starting in DET, beat UCF alum Duante Culpepper if thats an accomplishment

Richard Seymour - traded from Raiders to Patriots a week before the season starts, wow talk about bad luck, at least he's a free agent after this year and the Pats got a #1 pick out of it

Team #1: 12 team PPR League with huge QB bonus and 12 man rosters (no TE)
QB: Tony Romo (Matt Cassel)
RB: Ladainian Tomlinson
RB: Ahmad Bradshaw/Leon Washington
WR: Calvin Johnson
WR: TO/Eddie Royal
DEF: Vikings/Dolphins
K: Prater (UCF!) / K. Brown
Note: This league is an odd one as you are capped by position in the draft, so week 1 waiver wire should be a fun one

Team #2: 8 team PPR League with Return Yards start 3 RB and WR plus Flex
QB: Donovan McNabb/Matt Schaub
RB: Steve Slaton
RB: Ray Rice
RB: Ryan Grant
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
WR: Calvin Johnson (on both teams congrats)
WR: Greg Jennings
TE: Jeremy Shockey
Flex: Lance Moore/Eddie Royal/Kevin Walter/ D Brown
DEF: Bears
K: Carney

Make sure you get your lineups in by Thursday morning as many will lock as soon as kickoff hits on Thursday night.

Last Minute Fantasy Football Notes (I'M BACK!)

Kickoff for the season is just 10 days away and I know some people are drafting this weekend. I always thought it was fairest to draft the last weekend because it's takes out injuries from preseason (Matt Cassel) and allows for position battles to get settled. Most importantly it takes out the possibility of a waiver wire champ. This is the guy in the league who everybody hates because you draft one month out and every time some move is announced he's all over that guy. I posted my review 2 weeks ago here on my blog, so look to the right toolbar for "fantasy football preview".

Here's some nuggets you should know before you draft:

Brett Favre & Michael Vick - have jobs now and are moving up draftboards (Why you'd draft them who knows?)

Donald Brown - Getting a ton of carries in Indy and Joseph Addai is getting old

Brandon Marshall - my fellow UCF Knight has gone crazy, but I already knew that and his draft status if falling daily so a huge risk/reward

Domenique Hixon - NY Football Giants #1 WR

Edgerring James - Now with Seahawks, might get goal-line carries

Michael Crabtree - sign already, no contract so worthless for now, draft Josh Morgan instead

Ahmad Bradshaw - Grab him in the 10th, returning kicks and playing the Derrick Ward role great late value

Antonio Bryant - TB QB stinks no matter who it is and I heard the word "scoping" and it involves his knee

TB & NO RB's - I'm out on all them both have announced a 3 ring circus at RB which will kill their fantasy value

Glen Coffee - Mr. Preseason at RB at least wrestles some carries from Gore

Ray Rice - Becoming "the man" in Baltimore plus great for PPR leagues

Brady Quinn - he's starting in CLE so if you play in 2 QB leagues he's now draftable

As a follow-up to last week's article here's a great read advocating a WR friendly draft from Jamey Eisenberg at CBS (http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball/story/12125935) where he notes that "By our count, only seven teams won't use a tandem or running back by committee going into the season (Cincinnati, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Houston, Jacksonville and St. Louis). Every other team will use at least two running backs in a prominent role. " so that means draft Cedric Benson, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Ryan Grant, Steve Slaton, MJD, and Steven Jackson because outside of that everybody is sharing so grab Smith, Grant, and Benson because they go outside the first and are great picks for your team.

PS If you are still playing baseball (1st, 1st, 3rd - thank you) Brad Penny is a Giant and worth a flyer due to the division and park. Also Gutierrez is closing in AZ now.

My Fantasy Football Preview

In the interest of full disclosure, my expertise is in fantasy baseball. I've played football the past few years and never been really bad or all that good. It comes during the heart of busy season at my old job. On the bright side, I'm funemployed right now so I've had a little bit more time to prepare. I won't bombard you with lists but a few links) or player by player previews because that's been done. I'll just put my strategy out there for the season and run through some sleepers.

First off let's get everybody some links:
www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com (Great for ADP)
www.fftoolbox.com (Updated Depth Charts)
www.rotoworld.com (News on everything)
www.kffl.com
http://www.fantasyrundown.com/Football.html (THE LINK OF LINKS!!!)

OK, so before you do any research check your leagues rules. Some have 10 teams which means you don't need a QB as early. Some start 3 RB or WR making them more or less valuable. Others are PPR making players like Steve Slaton and Reggie Bush even more valuable.

From there, print off a grid for the draft of all teams to fill in (this is especially helpful if you pick on the swing during a snake draft) and just one big board to track all the players.

Now, time to strategize for this year. RB-RB strategy is dead. Sorry I just don't trust the guys going late first and in the 2nd rounds. I'm talking about Chris Johnson (loses goaline), Steven Jackson (injuries and garbage team), LDT (what's left of him), D'Angelo (one year wonder?), plus old favorites like Westbrook and Portis. 2008 later round picks included Brandon Jacobs (3rd round), Michael Turner (4), Thomas Jones (5), Matt Forte (6), D'Angelo Williams (8), and Steve Slaton (9+). If you do not pick in the top 5 to get ADP, MJD, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, or Steve Slaton then pick a WR then maybe even another one. Rounds 3-6 are littered with potential RB breakouts.

You have 15 rounds to get players so working backwards now you'll grab a kicker (15), 2 defenses (14&13), and you know you have 12 spots to get players.
1 RB if top 5 or WR
2 WR (yes, again)
3 RB - Ryan Grant and Kevin Smith or WR if you didnt' get one in the first
4 RB - Darren McFadden and Derick Ward
5 TE - They are 4 good ones in Witten, Gates, Gonzalez, and Clark, otherwise wait for awhile a long while and grab a RB
6 QB - Romo, D-Mac, and the Matt's will be available here
7 RB - Ray Rice, Felix Jones, and Cedric Benson
8 RB - Donald Brown, Jamal Lewis, and Julius Jones
9 QB - Matt Part 2 (Hasselbeck and Cassel)
10 WR - Derrick Mason, Ted Ginn Domenick Hixon, Josh Morgan, Justin Gage
11 WR - Grab 1 of the guys above, all #1 receivers on their teams or the #2 guy for your QB
12 RB - Grab 1 more so pick a backup of a team you think's start will get injured

There is no mathematical difference week to week after the big 8 or 9 WR's so try to grab two elite guys early and let everybody else waste picks on middling WR. Same goes for TE, 4 biggies and crap. RB is a complete crapshoot so grab bunch 4 in the first 8 rounds. Getting a QB in the 6th is nice but hedge it with a 9th just in case.

So here is a big list of players I like in relation to their ADP: Matt Schaub (7), Trent Edwards (11), Ryan Grant (3), Kevin Smith (3), Darren McFadden (4), Derick Ward (5), Ray Rice and Felix Jones (6), Cedric Benson Donald Brown and Jamal Lewis (7), Julius Jones and LeSean McCoy (8), Fred Jackson (9), Lance Moore Devin Hester Bernard Berrian Donnie Avery (7), Kevin Walter Percy Harvin (8), Derrick Mason Ted Ginn (9) Dominque Hixon and Josh Morgan (10) Owen Daniels (8) Vincent Shiancoe (13)

If you are in my league and reading this I don't really care but this isn't linked to a particular player or draft position. Please looke at tiers of players this year. There are 5 RB, 9 QB, 8 WR, 4 TE and everything else is going to be the same. Do you best to grab as many of these players as possible. All the dual RB systems are killing fantasy teams. We live in pass happy NFL league, so draft accordingly. Good luck to all, have fun, and if you win big off this post please share in the winnings because Barack only give me so much.