Monday, August 17, 2009

My Fantasy Football Preview

In the interest of full disclosure, my expertise is in fantasy baseball. I've played football the past few years and never been really bad or all that good. It comes during the heart of busy season at my old job. On the bright side, I'm funemployed right now so I've had a little bit more time to prepare. I won't bombard you with lists but a few links) or player by player previews because that's been done. I'll just put my strategy out there for the season and run through some sleepers.

First off let's get everybody some links:
www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com (Great for ADP)
www.fftoolbox.com (Updated Depth Charts)
www.rotoworld.com (News on everything)
www.kffl.com
http://www.fantasyrundown.com/Football.html (THE LINK OF LINKS!!!)

OK, so before you do any research check your leagues rules. Some have 10 teams which means you don't need a QB as early. Some start 3 RB or WR making them more or less valuable. Others are PPR making players like Steve Slaton and Reggie Bush even more valuable.

From there, print off a grid for the draft of all teams to fill in (this is especially helpful if you pick on the swing during a snake draft) and just one big board to track all the players.

Now, time to strategize for this year. RB-RB strategy is dead. Sorry I just don't trust the guys going late first and in the 2nd rounds. I'm talking about Chris Johnson (loses goaline), Steven Jackson (injuries and garbage team), LDT (what's left of him), D'Angelo (one year wonder?), plus old favorites like Westbrook and Portis. 2008 later round picks included Brandon Jacobs (3rd round), Michael Turner (4), Thomas Jones (5), Matt Forte (6), D'Angelo Williams (8), and Steve Slaton (9+). If you do not pick in the top 5 to get ADP, MJD, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, or Steve Slaton then pick a WR then maybe even another one. Rounds 3-6 are littered with potential RB breakouts.

You have 15 rounds to get players so working backwards now you'll grab a kicker (15), 2 defenses (14&13), and you know you have 12 spots to get players.
1 RB if top 5 or WR
2 WR (yes, again)
3 RB - Ryan Grant and Kevin Smith or WR if you didnt' get one in the first
4 RB - Darren McFadden and Derick Ward
5 TE - They are 4 good ones in Witten, Gates, Gonzalez, and Clark, otherwise wait for awhile a long while and grab a RB
6 QB - Romo, D-Mac, and the Matt's will be available here
7 RB - Ray Rice, Felix Jones, and Cedric Benson
8 RB - Donald Brown, Jamal Lewis, and Julius Jones
9 QB - Matt Part 2 (Hasselbeck and Cassel)
10 WR - Derrick Mason, Ted Ginn Domenick Hixon, Josh Morgan, Justin Gage
11 WR - Grab 1 of the guys above, all #1 receivers on their teams or the #2 guy for your QB
12 RB - Grab 1 more so pick a backup of a team you think's start will get injured

There is no mathematical difference week to week after the big 8 or 9 WR's so try to grab two elite guys early and let everybody else waste picks on middling WR. Same goes for TE, 4 biggies and crap. RB is a complete crapshoot so grab bunch 4 in the first 8 rounds. Getting a QB in the 6th is nice but hedge it with a 9th just in case.

So here is a big list of players I like in relation to their ADP: Matt Schaub (7), Trent Edwards (11), Ryan Grant (3), Kevin Smith (3), Darren McFadden (4), Derick Ward (5), Ray Rice and Felix Jones (6), Cedric Benson Donald Brown and Jamal Lewis (7), Julius Jones and LeSean McCoy (8), Fred Jackson (9), Lance Moore Devin Hester Bernard Berrian Donnie Avery (7), Kevin Walter Percy Harvin (8), Derrick Mason Ted Ginn (9) Dominque Hixon and Josh Morgan (10) Owen Daniels (8) Vincent Shiancoe (13)

If you are in my league and reading this I don't really care but this isn't linked to a particular player or draft position. Please looke at tiers of players this year. There are 5 RB, 9 QB, 8 WR, 4 TE and everything else is going to be the same. Do you best to grab as many of these players as possible. All the dual RB systems are killing fantasy teams. We live in pass happy NFL league, so draft accordingly. Good luck to all, have fun, and if you win big off this post please share in the winnings because Barack only give me so much.